UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets

A flyweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 268 as No. 6 Brandon “The Assassin Baby" Moreno faces unranked Lone’er Kavanagh.

Where to Watch UFC Mexico City on Saturday Night?

💰 Best Bet: Zellhuber by Points (+175)

UFC Mexico City: Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green

Unranked lightweights Daniel Zellhuber and King Green will go at it on Saturday. Zellhuber has lost two straight, dropping a decision to Michael Johnson his last time out. Green is coming off a win, but is 1-2 over his previous 3.

• Zellhuber is two inches taller, but he has a massive six-inch reach advantage.
• Both men drop opponents at similar rates, at 0.30 and 0.28 per 15 minutes.
• Green lands slightly more significant strikes at 0.43 per minute, but absorbs 2.27 fewer.
• Neither fighter relies on takedowns, but Green has the better offense, while Zellhuber has the better takedown defense.

Green tends to coast and fights in ways judges don’t always like. At 39, he’s also fighting Father Time. Zellhuber’s youth and length lean to his advantage, but not at -500 straight up.

💰 Best Bet: Martinez by KO/TKO (+650)

UFC Mexico City: Marlon Vera vs. David Martínez

No. 9 ranked bantamweight Marlon Vera takes on No. 10 David Martínez. Vera is on a three-fight losing streak and has lost four of his last five. Martínez has won nine in a row, knocking out five of his previous seven opponents.

• Vera is three inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage.
• Vera drops opponents 0.15 more items per 15 minutes, while landing a similar output of significant strikes per minute. However, Vera absorbs 2.42 more significant strikes per minute.
• I don’t think grappling plays a large part in the results of this bout.

Vera hasn’t aged out of this weight class, but 33 is close to 35, which I consider the end of the line at the lower weights. I’m going to go with the outside chance that Martinez finds the knockout.

💰 Best Bet: Kavanagh by KO/TKO (+500)

UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Odds & Probabilities

The main event features former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno facing Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno lost his previous bout to Tatsuro Taira, but has won two of his last three. Kavanagh also lost his last time out, but was on a nine-fight win streak before that.

• Moreno is one inch taller, but has a three-inch reach advantage.
• Kavanagh knocks down opponents 0.17 more times per 15 minutes and lands 0.40 more significant strikes per minute.
• The grappling is pretty even on paper, with Kavanagh having better takedown defense.
• Moreno is very aggressive, which can be an advantage and a disadvantage.

I don’t think many are giving Kavanagh much of a chance in this fight, which was my first reaction as well. Part of me wants to take the fight not to go the distance (-108), but I’d rather roll the dice on a surprising upset knockout.

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