UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets

A UFC Lightweight interim title fight headlines UFC 324 as No. 4-ranked Justin “The Highlight" Gaethje takes on No. 5-ranked Paddy “The Baddy" Pimblett.

Where to Watch UFC 324 on Saturday Night?

💰 Best Bet: Fight to End in KO/TKO (-230)

UFC 324: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis

Top ten heavyweights Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis will do battle on Saturday. Cortes-Acosta is on a two-fight win streak, knocking out both Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev in November 2025. Lewis has also won two straight, knocking out Rodrigo Nascimento and Tallison Teixeira in his last two bouts.

• Cortes-Acosta is one inch taller, but Lewis has a one-inch reach advantage.
• Both men are heavy hitters, dropping opponents 0.71 and 0.62 times per 15 minutes.
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta will have the cumulative power edge in this contest, landing 3.04 more significant strikes per minute.
• Lewis has 24 knockouts among his 29 wins, so it’s challenging to say he doesn’t have the one-punch power advantage.
• The grappling stats lean toward Cortes-Acosta, but I don’t expect this fight to go to the ground.

I think there are two ways to go with this fight. The safest route is to take the fight to end in a KO/TKO at -230. However, there is value in grabbing Lewis to win by KO/TKO at +360.

💰 Best Bet: O’Malley to Win (-215)

UFC 324: Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong

No. 3-ranked bantamweight Sean O’Malley takes on No. 5-ranked Song Yadong. O’Malley is coming off back-to-back title losses to Merab Dvalishvili. Song is 3-1 over his previous four fights, beating Henry Cejudo his last time out.

• O’Malley is three inches taller and has a five-inch reach advantage.
• He’ll have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.71 times per 15 minutes, and landing 1.72 more significant strikes per minute.
• Song has a slight statistical edge in grappling, which would need to be more overwhelming to instill confidence in his chances.

💰 Best Bet: Gaethje to Win (+184)

UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds & Probabilities

The main event features the Interim Lightweight title on the line with Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett vying for the belt. Gaethje is 3-1 over his previous four fights, beating Rafael Fiziev last time out. Pimblett is riding a nine-fight win streak, beating Michael Chandler in his last bout.

• Gaethje is one inch taller, but Pimblett has a three-inch reach advantage.
• The American knocks down opponents 0.67 times per 15 minutes, to the Englishman’s 0.48.
• Gaethje is also the more active striker, landing 1.4 more significant strikes per minute.
• Gaethje has a wrestling background, but rarely relies on it in the cage.
• At the same time, Pimblett lands 0.86 more takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.68 more submissions.

This is a real test for Pimblett. At 37, Gaethje is aging out of the sport, but his competition level has been much higher than Pimblett’s. This could be the fight that validates Pimblett as a genuine contender, but I think there’s enough of a chance that Gaethje wins to see value on the underdog.

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