UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Bantamweight title fight headlines UFC 323 as champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against No. 3-ranked and former champion Petr Yan.
- Arena: T-Mobile Arena
- Location: Paradise, Nevada, United States
- Where to Watch: PPV
- Date: December 6, 2025
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
UFC 323: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
No. 2-ranked flyweight Brandon Moreno faces off against No. 5-ranked Tatsuro Taira. Moreno is on a two-fight win streak, last beating Steve Erceg in March of this year. Tatsuro is 17-1 over his career, with his only loss coming to Brandon Royval two fights ago.
Both men are five-foot-seven and have an identical reach of 70 inches. Tatsuro drops opponents 0.32 times more per 15 minutes, but Moreno lands 1.09 more significant strikes per minute. However, Tatsuro finishes 1.7 more takedowns and 1.3 more submissions per 15 minutes.
This is an interesting fight, and pretty even on paper. The difference in this one could come down to Moreno’s big fight experience.
💰 Best Bet: Moreno to win (+102)
UFC 323: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van
UFC Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his title against No. 1-ranked Joshua Van. Pantoja has essentially cleared out the division, defending his title four times on the back of an eight-fight win streak. Van has won five straight and will be fighting his eighth match over the past two years.
Both men are five-foot-five, but Pantoja has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Van drops opponents 0.33 more times per 15 minutes, and lands 4.5 more significant strikes per minute. Van will have a considerable advantage on the feet, looking sharp in his last fight, while Pantoja possesses lackluster striking. However, Pantoja is a wizard on the ground, with an ability to transition into a submission with lightning speed.
I think it’s only a matter of time until Van becomes the flyweight champion. It might be too soon to face Pantoja, but the champion is 35 in a division that isn’t kind to aging fighters. At +200, this might be the time to capitalize on Van being an underdog, even if it feels unlikely.
💰 Best Bet: Van to win (+200)
UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan
- Odds to Win: Dvalishvili -500 | Yan +340
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +500 | Submission +700 | Decision -360
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes -370 | No +260
Merab Dvalishvili puts his title on the line against Petr Yan. Dvalishvili has won 14 in a row, already having defended his title three times this year. Yan is riding a three-fight win streak, but lost to Merab just two years ago.
Yan is two inches taller, but Merab has a one-inch reach advantage. Yan will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.58 times per 15 minutes, while Dvalishvili is a volume striker. That being said, Yan still lands 0.79 more significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs 1.59 more significant strikes per minute. Merab will have the wrestling edge, finishing 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes.
The big difference in this fight, and all Dvalishvili fights, is Merab’s endurance. The most dominant weapon in MMA might be Merab’s gastank. His ability to wear opponents down with nonstop takedowns without getting tired is unmatched. Until Merab shows any signs of slowing down, he’s practically unbeatable. At -500, it’s hard to take him straight up, but it’s likely this one heads to a decision anyway.
💰 Best Bet: Dvalishvili by points (-195)
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