UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Light Heavyweight championship fight headlines UFC 320 as Magomed Ankalaev defends his belt against the former champion Alex “Poatan" Pereira in a rematch from March.
- Arena: T-Mobile Arena
- Location: Paradise, Nevada, United States
- Where to Watch: PPV
- Date: October 4, 2025
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
UFC 320: Jiri Procházka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
No. 4-ranked Khalil Rountree Jr. and No. 2-ranked Jiri Prochazka match up, with both coming off wins over former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill. Rountree is 6-1 over his last seven bouts, only losing to Alex Pereira. Prochazka is 15-2 over his previous 17 fights, with both losses coming against Pereira.
Prochazka is two inches taller and has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Both men possess significant knockout power, with Rountree knocking down opponents at a rate 0.51 times higher per 15 minutes. However, Prochazka is the more active striker, landing 1.95 more significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 1.46 more. Neither man is a great grappler, so don’t expect this fight to end up on the mat.
I want to recommend Prochazka due to his power and high level of entertainment. However, the betting value lies with Rountree in this one.
💰 Best Bet: Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO (+360)
UFC 320: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Cory Sandhagen
UFC Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his title against No. 4-ranked Cory Sandhagen. Dvalishvili is riding a 13-fight win streak, the last three being title bouts. Sandhagen is 4-1 over his previous five, defeating Deiveson Figueiredo last time out.
Sandhagen is five inches taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. The challenger will have a statistical edge in striking, dropping opponents 0.23 more times per 15 minutes, and landing 0.75 more significant strikes per minute. However, Dvalishvili’s overwhelming advantage is his endurance. Merab averages 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and maintains his pace through all five rounds.
Merab is a massive favorite at -420. I don’t see him losing this matchup, but it’s more likely to go the distance.
💰 Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili by Points (-195)
UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev (c) vs. Alex Pereira
- Odds to Win: Ankalaev -250 | Pereira +198
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -105 | Submission +800 | Decision +100
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +110 | No -140
No. 1-ranked Alex Pereira was on a five-fight win streak, four of which were title fights, when he lost his belt to Magomed Ankalaev in March. Ankalaev has only one loss on his record, which occurred seven years ago in his UFC debut.
Pereira is one inch taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. Poatan has won 83 percent of his bouts by knockout, dropping opponents 0.80 times per 15 minutes. Pereira lands 1.34 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.04 more. Ankalaev has an edge in both offensive and defensive wrestling, but it’s highly overrated.
Pereira is fighting Father Time, entering the cage at 38 years old, but hasn’t shown significant decline. I thought Pereira’s takedown defense was good enough to win this fight earlier this year, which turned out to be essentially correct. The odds shift after that loss make Poatan look like the value pick in this bout, and despite Ankalaev’s nullifying style, Pereira’s power is always there.
💰 Best Bet: Alex Pereira to win (+198)
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