San Antonio Spurs Western Conference Championship: The Market Is Sleeping on a Legitimate Contender
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
The market is pricing San Antonio at 18 cents for the Western Conference Championship, implying just an 18% probability. That’s criminal undervaluation for a team sitting second in the West with 25 games remaining. I’ve been tracking this market since the season started, and this represents one of the clearest value opportunities we’ve seen all year.
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The Case For San Antonio’s Championship Run
The numbers don’t lie about what the San Antonio Spurs have accomplished this season. They’re 41-16 (.719 win percentage) and sitting second in the Western Conference, just three games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. More importantly, they’ve been dominant recently.
- Perfect 5-0 in their last five games with a ridiculous plus-19.2 net rating. Nine wins in their last ten games (9-1 record) while outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game – 15-5 in their last twenty games shows this isn’t a small sample fluke – Averaging 127.2 points per game in their last five contests while holding opponents to just 108.0
The Spurs rank fourth in net rating league-wide and sixth in offensive rating. This isn’t a team sneaking into playoff position – they’re legitimately elite on both ends of the floor.
Victor Wembanyama Is Having a Superstar Season
The foundation of San Antonio’s championship case starts with Victor Wembanyama’s evolution into a legitimate MVP candidate. The numbers from his recent stretch are absolutely staggering.
- 26.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game over his last five. Shooting 51.1% from the field and 82.1% from the free-throw line in that span. Plus-19.4 per game in his last five contests, showing his impact on winning. Season averages of 24.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks on elite efficiency
Wembanyama is putting up numbers we haven’t seen since prime Tim Duncan, but with modern three-point range. He’s averaging 35.8% from three on significant volume this season. That combination of size, skill, and two-way impact is championship-level stuff.
The De’Aaron Fox Factor
The trade that brought De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio has been transformative for their championship aspirations. Fox provides exactly what this team needed – elite point guard play and veteran leadership.
- 19.1 points and 6.3 assists per game since joining the Spurs, Shooting 48.0% from the field and 34.7% from three in San Antonio, Plus-19.2 in his last five games alongside Wembanyama. Perfect chemistry with the young core, as evidenced by their recent winning streak
The Fox-Wembanyama pick-and-roll combination has been unstoppable. Fox’s speed and court vision, paired with Wembanyama’s finishing ability, create mismatches that elite teams struggle to solve.
Head-to-Head Success Against Western Conference Elite
San Antonio hasn’t just beaten up on weak competition; they’ve proven they can hang with the West’s best teams. Their record against top Western Conference contenders tells the story.
- Beat the Oklahoma City Thunder twice this season (117-102 on Christmas, 130-110 at home). Dominated the Los Angeles Lakers 136-108 on the road in February. Split with the Houston Rockets (1-1 record) in competitive games. Beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 126-123 at home in a statement win.
That’s a 6-4 record against the other top-six Western Conference teams. They’re not just making up numbers in the standings; they’re beating the teams they’ll need to go through in the playoffs.
The Market Inefficiency
Here’s where the value becomes obvious. The Oklahoma City Thunder is currently priced around 45-50 cents for the Western Conference Championship, implying roughly 50% probability. But look at the actual gap between these teams.
- San Antonio is just three games back with 25 games remaining. The Spurs have better recent form (9-1 vs OKC’s recent struggles). Head-to-head, San Antonio is 4-1 against Oklahoma City this season. San Antonio has a better net rating over the last twenty games
The market is treating this like Oklahoma City has already locked up the conference, but San Antonio has a legitimate path to the one seed. Even if they don’t catch Oklahoma City, they’re virtually locked into a top-three seed, giving them home-court advantage through at least the first round.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
At 18 cents, this market is pricing San Antonio like they’re a fringe playoff team hoping to steal a series. That’s not reality. This is a 41-16 team with the best young player in basketball, hitting his prime at the perfect time.
The injury report shows minimal concerns: Mason Plumlee is day-to-day with reconditioning, and David Jones Garcia is out for the season but wasn’t a rotation player. The core is healthy and playing their best basketball.
I’m taking San Antonio at 18 cents for the Western Conference Championship. The market will correct itself as we get closer to the playoffs, but right now, we’re getting championship odds on what should be considered a co-favorite with Oklahoma City.
The path is clear: Wembanyama continues his MVP-level play, Fox provides veteran leadership, and this young core gets hot at the right time. We’ve seen stranger things happen in the NBA playoffs, and this San Antonio team has all the ingredients for a deep run.
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Our NBA predictions are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 25. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
