Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Wednesday, February 25
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
The late hammer is sitting in Denver, and that game brings a couple of the cleanest recent-trend props on the board. There’s also one spot where the market is still hanging an assist line that hasn’t matched the player’s last week.
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Best NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds: Wednesday, February 25
The Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Where to Watch the Detroit Pistons vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Tonight
- Arena: Little Caesars Arena
- Location: Detroit, MI
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 25, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -158 | 61.2% |
Odds as of February 25, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Duncan Robinson gets a clean green light at this number. He’s hit 2.5 three-pointers made in three of his last five games. He’s also cleared 10.5 points in four of his last five, which matters because it usually means the volume is there. The floor has been steady too, with 2.5 rebounds, hitting in four of his last five. That’s a nice signal he’s staying involved. At -158, this is a pay-for-consistency over.
The Pick: Ty Jerome Over 3.5 Assists
Where to Watch the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Tonight
- Arena: FedExForum
- Location: Memphis, TN
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 25, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -166 | 62.4% |
Odds as of February 25, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Ty Jerome has been living above this line. He’s cleared 3.5 assists in four of his last five. The scoring has come with it, too, with 16.5 points, hitting in four of his last five. The best part is the stability of the role across categories. Jerome has also gone over 1.5 three-pointers made in five of his last five. That usually pairs with more opportunities to create. At -166, it’s not cheap, but it’s one of the steadier assist overs on the slate.
The Pick: Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 Rebounds
Where to Watch the Houston Rockets vs. Sacramento Kings Tonight
- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 25, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -117 | 53.9% |
Odds as of February 25, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Alperen Sengun is getting a rebound line that hasn’t matched his recent results. He’s stayed under 9.5 rebounds in five of his last five. That’s a 0/5 hit rate to the over. The under case holds even when looking at his broader box score involvement. He’s also stayed under 36.5 points + rebounds + assists in five of his last five, another 0/5. Even his scoring line is trending down, with 20.5 points going over in just one of his last five. At -117, the under is priced like a coin flip. The last week says it hasn’t been.
The Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 5.5 Assists
Where to Watch the Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Tonight
- Arena: TD Garden
- Location: Boston, MA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 25, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | +101 | 49.8% |
Odds as of February 25, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Payton Pritchard is in a strong form pocket as a creator. He’s cleared 5.5 assists in four of his last five at plus money. That’s the key. The production is also showing up across the stat sheet. Pritchard has hit 3.5 rebounds in four of his last five, and he’s gone over 17.5 points in three of his last five. The combo line supports it too, with 27.5 points + rebounds + assists, hitting in three of his last five. At +101, the number is asking for less than a fifty-fifty outcome. The recent hit rate is way higher.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
This slate has a clear theme. Ride the players whose last five games are already beating the number, and demand the right price when the market catches up.
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Our player prop picks are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 25. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
