NBA Kalski Market: Stephen Curry’s Three-Point Leader Is a Fade

The market has Stephen Curry at 36 cents to lead the NBA in three-pointers made per game this season, down from 45 cents at open. That’s a 33% collapse in implied probability, and frankly, it should be trading even lower. I’m here to tell you why this market is dead money, and the smart play is fading the Chef.

The Injury Reality That Changes Everything

The elephant in the room isn’t just Curry’s recent struggles – it’s the right knee injury that has him sidelined until March 2nd. According to ESPN’s injury report, Curry will be re-evaluated in 10 days, but that March 2nd return date is optimistic at best.

• Curry has played just 39 of Golden State‘s 56 games this season.
• He’s missed 17 games already, and now faces at least eight more games on the shelf.
• At his current pace of 4.49 threes per game, every missed contest costs him roughly 4.5 made threes.
• The Warriors have roughly 26 games remaining in the regular season.

The math is brutal. Even if Curry returns exactly on March 2nd and plays every remaining game perfectly healthy, he’ll have missed significant time during the most crucial stretch of the season.

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The Competition Is Pulling Away

While Curry sits in street clothes, his competition is building insurmountable leads. Here’s what the current leaderboard looks like:

• Stephen Curry: 4.49 per game (175 made in 39 games)
• Luka Doncic: 3.65 per game (157 made in 43 games)
• Donovan Mitchell: 3.57 per game (189 made in 53 games)
• Michael Porter Jr.: 3.53 per game (152 made in 43 games)
• Kon Knueppel: 3.45 per game (193 made in 56 games)

The gap looks comfortable, but it’s an illusion. Mitchell has already made 189 threes compared to Curry’s 175, and he’s played 14 more games. Knueppel sits at 193 made threes and has been remarkably durable, playing 56 games.

The Projection Problem

Let’s run the numbers assuming an 82-game season. If Curry maintains his 4.49 per game pace over a full season, he’d finish with 368 made threes. That sounds dominant until you realize he’s only played 39 games and faces significant time on the injured list.

• Luka projects to 299 threes if he maintains his pace.
• Mitchell projects to 292 threes with his current rate.
• Porter Jr. projects to 290 threes at his current clip.

But here’s the kicker: these projections assume Curry plays every remaining game, which his injury history suggests is unlikely. Meanwhile, his competitors have shown better durability and consistency.

Recent Form Tells The Story

Curry’s last 10 games paint a concerning picture beyond just the injury. He’s shooting 37.8% from three over his last 10 contests, well below his season average of 39.1%. More troubling, he’s averaging just 28.9 minutes per game in that stretch, suggesting Golden State was already managing his workload before the injury.

• His last five games show a 2-3 record with the Warriors struggling.
• He’s averaging 26.0 points on 40.4% three-point shooting in that span.
• The plus-minus of -4.4 over his last five suggests the team performs worse when he’s on the court.

This isn’t the dominant Curry we’ve seen in previous seasons when he led the league in threes made per game.

Historical Context Works Against Him

Looking at Curry’s recent three-point leadership campaigns reveals a troubling pattern. In 2024, he made 4.82 threes per game over 74 games. In 2023, he hit 4.88 per game over 56 games. In 2021, his monster 5.35 per game came over just 63 games.

The common thread? When Curry leads the league in threes per game, he typically plays 60-75 games, not the 50-55 he’s tracking toward this season. Durability has always been crucial to his three-point dominance, and this season’s injury concerns suggest that edge is gone.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

At 36 cents, this market is pricing in roughly 36% implied probability that Curry leads the league. That’s still far too high given the injury timeline and competition. The smart money should be on the No side of this market.

Mitchell and Knueppel both have legitimate shots at maintaining pace while Curry sits. Mitchell’s 3.57 per game over 53 games shows remarkable consistency, while Knueppel’s 3.45 over 56 games demonstrates the durability Curry lacks.

I’m fading Curry at any price above 20 cents. The combination of injury concerns, missed games, and legitimate competition makes this a clear No play. The market hasn’t fully adjusted to the reality that the three-point king’s crown is slipping away.

Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 22. This article has been published by Editor-in-Chief Daniel Mogollon.