Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Saturday, February 21
Grant White
Host · Writer
Phoenix is missing Devin Booker, and that’s the kind of late-week injury ripple that can swing multiple prop markets at once.
After scanning every matchup, the best angles land on assist stability, buy-low unders, and one classic “line is too low for the role" points play.
Attack the Paint with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.
Best NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds: Saturday, February 21
The Pick: Desmond Bane Over 3.5 Assists
Where to Watch the Phoenix Suns vs. Orlando Magic Tonight
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- Arena: Phoenix Suns Arena
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 21, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -130 | 56.5% |
| DraftKings (Best Price) | -123 | 55.2% |
Odds as of February 21, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Desmond Bane enters a spot where the assist path is clean. He’s cleared 3.5 assists in 40% of his last five and 40% of his last ten, but the opponent history is the separator. Bane has hit this line in six of seven games vs Phoenix. That’s an 85.71% hit rate. Phoenix also ranks 29th in this matchup bucket, allowing 2.1 assists versus a 2.4 league average. Layer in the Suns missing Devin Booker and Grayson Allen, and their team defense has slipped to a 118.5 defensive rating in the twelve games Booker has missed. At the current number, this is a steady over with multiple ways to get there.
The Pick: Andre Drummond Under 10.5 Rebounds
Where to Watch the New Orleans Pelicans vs. Philadelphia 76ers Tonight
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- Arena: Smoothie King Center
- Location: New Orleans, LA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 21, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -106 | 51.5% |
| DraftKings (Best Price) | +103 | 49.3% |
Odds as of February 21, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Andre Drummond is a fade spot for Philadelphia. He’s cleared 10.5 rebounds in 40% of his last five and 30% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 39.02%. The matchup history is even colder. Drummond is 0-for-2 against New Orleans on this line. The range also matters here. His floor is 4.0 rebounds, and his ceiling is 12.0, which is uncomfortably close to the number for an underdog price. New Orleans has also been a tough rebounding matchup by this profile, ranking 2nd and allowing just 8.1 rebounds versus a 7.1 league average to centers. At plus money, the under is priced like a coin flip. The recent hit rates say it shouldn’t be.
The Pick: Tyler Herro Over 17.5 Points
Where to Watch the Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies Tonight
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- Arena: Kaseya Center
- Location: Miami, FL
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -109 | 52.2% |
| DraftKings (Best Price) | -103 | 50.7% |
Odds as of February 21, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Tyler Herro is the simplest number on the slate. He’s cleared 17.5 points in 100% of his last five and 90% of his last ten. He’s also at 91.67% on the season, with a five-game over streak. The line is still sitting below his production band. Herro’s season average is 22.1 points, with a 20.0 floor and 24.0 ceiling. Even with both teams on a back-to-back, this is the kind of low line that doesn’t need a perfect game script. It just needs normal minutes and normal shot volume.
The Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points
Where to Watch the New York Knicks vs. Houston Rockets Tonight
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- Arena: Madison Square Garden
- Location: New York, NY
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 21, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -107 | 51.7% |
| FanDuel (Best Price) | +100 | 50.0% |
Odds as of February 21, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Mikal Bridges is a role-and-history play, not a matchup play. He’s cleared 13.5 points in 80% of his last five and 60% of his last ten, with a 64.29% season hit rate. The head-to-head is the hammer. Bridges is 4-for-4 against Houston on this line, a 100% hit rate. The floor is also workable at 11.75, and the ceiling sits at 19.25, which gives this number real breathing room. Houston’s defense profile here is solid, but the price is the key. Even money on FanDuel is a clean upgrade from the consensus.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
This slate has a clear theme: take the mispriced low lines when the role is stable, and don’t be afraid to buy an under when the hit rates and schedule spot line up. Shop the number, grab the best price, and keep the card tight. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
