Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Friday, February 20
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
The market is finally giving us some real scheduling texture. There are multiple back-to-backs on the board. That’s where the cleanest prop edges usually live.
After scanning every matchup, four spots stand out for role, opponent fit, and price. One is a pure buy-low under. The other three are overs with strong hit rates and matchup support.
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Best NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds: Friday, February 20
The Pick: Andrew Nembhard Over 6.5 Assists
Where to Watch the Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers Tonight
- Arena: Capital One Arena
- Location: Washington, DC
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 20, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -123 | 55.2% |
| FanDuel (Best Price) | +102 | 49.5% |
Odds as of February 20, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Andrew Nembhard is the engine for this Indiana Pacers offense right now. He’s cleared 6.5 assists in 80% of his last five games and 80% of his last ten. His season average sits at 7.5 assists, so the line is still shaded low. The floor is sturdy too, with a 6.0 floor and a 9.0 ceiling. This is also a back-to-back for both teams, which tends to reward primary ball-handlers. At plus money on FanDuel, the price is doing the heavy lifting.
The Pick: Brandon Miller Over 23.5 Points
Where to Watch the Charlotte Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tonight
- Arena: Spectrum Center
- Location: Charlotte, NC
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 20, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -113 | 53.1% |
| BetMGM (Best Price) | -110 | 52.4% |
Odds as of February 20, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Brandon Miller gets the nod because the matchup history is loud. He’s cleared 23.5 points in 75% of his last eight against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He’s also on a two-game over streak for this line. The home split helps, too, with 22.0 points per game at home versus 19.4 on the road. And with Coby White still yet to debut for the Charlotte Hornets, Miller should continue his high usage rate. The ceiling sits at 26.0, which is enough to justify an over at a modest price.
The Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds
Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Brooklyn Nets Tonight
- Arena: Paycom Center
- Location: Oklahoma City, OK
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 20, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | +106 | 48.5% |
| BetMGM (Best Price) | +110 | 47.6% |
Odds as of February 20, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Chet Holmgren has been living above this number lately. He’s cleared 8.5 rebounds in 80% of his last five and 70% of his last ten. His home average is 9.5 rebounds, and he owns a 7.0 floor with a 10.0 ceiling. Brooklyn has also been a workable opponent, with Holmgren hitting in 66.67% of his last three against the Brooklyn Nets. The injury context matters, too. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out and Jalen Williams out, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rotation is thinner, and Holmgren’s “without" split shows 10.0 rebounds in five games without Gilgeous-Alexander. At plus money, this is a clean rebound bet.
The Pick: Jaylen Wells Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Where to Watch the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz Tonight
- Arena: FedExForum
- Location: Memphis, TN
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 20, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
| Betting Metric | Value | Implied Probability |
| Consensus Moneyline | -112 | 52.8% |
| BetMGM (Best Price) | -105 | 51.2% |
Odds as of February 20, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Jaylen Wells has been nowhere close to this combo line. He’s missed 23.5 points + rebounds + assists in 100% of his last five games and 100% of his last ten. That’s a five-game under streak. His season average is 17.2, leaving a big gap compared to 23.5. The floor is 11.5, and even the ceiling is only 24.0, so he needs a near-best-case outcome to beat you. Memphis also draws a Utah Jazz defense that ranks second in this matchup bucket for Wells’ profile, allowing 18.4 with a rank of 3 in the prop card. At -105, the under is priced like a coin flip. The recent results say it shouldn’t be.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
This slate has a little of everything: back-to-backs, rest advantages, and a few lines that still lag behind role. Shop the number, take the plus money when it’s there, and keep the card tight.
Our player prop picks are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 20. This article has been published by Editor-in-Chief Daniel Mogollon.
