Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Detroit’s futures board is the loudest signal on the screen. The market is buying Detroit as a real East threat, even while the “best record" contract just took a hit.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• Cleveland’s Eastern Conference one-seed odds fell from 10c to 6c (down 40.0%). The contract is still thin, with 71 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Jaime Jaquez Jr., Sixth Man of the Year, dropped from 18c to 11c (down 38.89%). The order book is chunky on the bid, with 50,000 contracts bid at 12c.

• Tyrese Maxey to lead the league in steals per game slid from 26c to 10c (down 61.54%). That move came with real action, at 2,504 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Detroit to win the Eastern Conference jumped from 20c to 22c (up 10.0%). That’s a clean, directional move with 3,194 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• San Antonio to win the Western Conference fell from 15c to 12c (down 20.0%). The market still has size, with 10,121 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Los Angeles Lakers to win the Western Conference fell from 5c to 4c (down 20.0%). It’s an active contract, with 2,266 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Orlando to make the playoffs fell from 74c to 66c (down 10.81%) on massive flow, with 9,640 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

• Detroit to have the best record in the league fell from 27c to 23c (down 14.81%), despite 1,916 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That’s the tension point in Detroit’s East title bid.

Kalshi NBA Volume and Order Book Highlights

• San Antonio to win the Finals is still the volume king. It traded 54,823 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, with 2,955,897 open interest.

• Oklahoma City to win the Finals remains a mega-market, with 16,315 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and 1,075,018 open interest.

• Phoenix to make the playoffs saw heavy two-way attention, with 10,590 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The market is priced at 81c bid and 84c ask, a three-cent spread.

• Deni Avdija Most Improved Player is the awards volume standout, with 37,399 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. It’s also a tight market at 56c bid and 57c ask.

• Nikola Jokic MVP is still a liquidity magnet, with 2,017,866 total volume and 975,772 open interest, even with 0.0% day movement.

• Jayson Tatum Eastern Conference Finals MVP is a warning label. It shows 5c bid and 29c ask, and the last trade printed 95c on 11 total volume.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Detroit’s East package is misaligned. Detroit is 22c to win the East, 80c for the East one seed, and 31c for the best overall record.

• Oklahoma City’s top-end pricing is steady. Oklahoma City is 51c to win the West and 40c to win the Finals, with both showing small or flat day moves.

• Cleveland’s title path is getting repriced. Cleveland is 23c to win the East, but only 6c for the East one seed after that 40.0% drop.

• LeBron James next team is basically a two-outcome fight. Cleveland is 47c, while stays with Los Angeles Lakers or retires is 42c, with 1,114 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours on the Lakers-or-retire outcome.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• Detroit is the headline. East-title odds are rising, but “best record" odds are falling.

• Treat wide spreads like volatility. The Tatum East Finals MVP market is not a price; it’s a gap.

• Follow the volume when the move is big. Orlando’s playoff drop came with 9,640 contracts in a day.

• Awards are getting reshuffled fast. Jaquez’s Sixth Man contract and Maxey’s steals-leader contract both got hit hard.

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Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 19. This article has been published by NBA editor John Canady.