Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Detroit’s “best record" contract just took a real hit, and it’s the cleanest signal on the board. Detroit to finish with the league’s best record slid from 35c to 26c, a -25.71% move, even while Detroit’s Eastern Conference one seed contract stayed elevated in the low-to-mid eighties.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• Detroit Best Regular-Season Record: dropped from 35c to 26c (-25.71%). That’s a sharp repricing of Detroit’s “top of the league" ceiling, not just playoff security.
• Los Angeles Lakers Playoff Qualification: fell from 96c to 90c (-6.25%). The contract still prices a likely berth, but the direction is notable.
• Phoenix Playoff Qualification: slid from 78c to 70c (-10.26%). That’s one of the bigger playoff-probability downticks on the sheet.
• New York Eastern Conference Title: climbed from 15c to 17c (+13.33%). The move stands out in a market that usually grinds.
• San Antonio Western Conference Title: rose from 17c to 19c (+11.76%). It pairs with a San Antonio championship uptick from 12c to 14c (+16.67%).
• Cade Cunningham MVP: moved up from 14c to 17c (+21.43%) on massive activity, with 162,033 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Jaylen Brown MVP: exploded from 3c to 8c (+166.67%), with 118,532 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Cade Cunningham Finals MVP: jumped from 8c to 21c (+162.5%). That’s a huge percentage move for a long-horizon award.
• Jalen Duren Most Improved Player: surged from 13c to 24c (+84.62%), with 11,092 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Deni Avdija Most Improved Player: dropped from 20c to 14c (-30.0%), despite 11,028 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Kon Knueppel Three Pointers Made Per Game Leader: fell from 21c to 13c (-38.1%). That’s a meaningful reset in a niche leader market.
• LaMelo Ball Three Pointers Made Per Game Leader: spiked from 3c to 23c (+666.67%). The move is massive, but the market still shows a very wide spread.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

• Oklahoma City championship odds remain the volume king at 49,875 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, with a tight 39c bid / 40c ask.
• San Antonio championship odds saw 140,528 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, with a 13c bid / 15c ask that signals real two-way action.
• Cade Cunningham MVP was a headline tape, with 162,033 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Victor Wembanyama MVP also stayed extremely active at 82,076 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• LaMelo Ball three-point leader is the definition of uncertainty, sitting at 4c bid / 22c ask.
• Stephen Curry three-point leader is also wide at 44c bid / 61c ask, even with 1,162 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Detroit’s one seed vs. best record split: Detroit’s Eastern Conference one seed is 82c bid / 85c ask, but best record is 29c bid / 31c ask. Traders are separating “top of East" from “top of league."
• Oklahoma City’s title stack: The Western Conference title is 50c bid / 51c ask, while the championship is a 39c bid / 40c ask. The pricing implies a big Finals conversion rate.
• Charlotte’s futures are getting real attention: playoff qualification is 51c bid / 55c ask with 2,635 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, and Eastern Conference title is up to 2c bid / 3c ask (+50.0%).
• Golden State playoff qualification: up from 56c to 60c (+7.14%), with 227 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and a tight 55c bid / 57c ask.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• The biggest repricing was Detroit’s “best record" contract. The market is fading the league-wide ceiling.
• Awards are where the action is. Cunningham MVP and Brown MVP combined for 280,000-plus contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Wide spreads are a warning sign. Ball’s three-point leader market at 4c bid / 22c ask can gap hard.
• Track the Oklahoma City complex daily. It’s the most liquid title market, and it sets the tone.

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Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 25. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.