Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Detroit is getting priced two different ways right now. The market sold Detroit’s “best record" case hard, but it still bid up Detroit’s East and title paths. That split is the cleanest story on the board.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• Detroit best regular-season record dropped from 40c to 34c (15.0% decline). It traded 4,189 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, signaling real conviction.
• Cleveland Eastern Conference one-seed fell from 7c to 3c (57.14% decline). That is a sharp repricing for a top-seed lane.
• Boston Eastern Conference one-seed jumped from 2c to 7c (250.0% increase). The market is suddenly paying attention to Boston’s path to the top seed.
• San Antonio Western Conference one-seed surged from 22c to 34c (54.55% increase). That move came with 539 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Phoenix playoff qualification climbed from 69c to 76c (10.14% increase). It also saw 56 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Golden State playoff qualification ripped from 49c to 57c (16.33% increase). It traded 241 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.
• Portland playoff qualification moved from 25c to 30c (20.0% increase). It traded 386 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.
• Oklahoma City best regular-season record rose from 49c to 55c (12.24% increase) on 1,397 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Boston Eastern Conference title rose from 21c to 23c (9.52% increase) with 19,862 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Cleveland Eastern Conference title slipped from 25c to 23c (8.0% decline) with 4,630 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• New York championship odds fell from 6c to 5c (16.67% decline).
• Milwaukee playoff qualification slid from 15c to 14c (6.67% decline) on 1,354 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

• San Antonio championship odds led the board with 139,122 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The market is extremely liquid there.
• Victor Wembanyama MVP saw 152,463 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, even with the contract sitting in single digits.
• Cade Cunningham MVP posted a massive 450,205 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours at 14c last price. That is sustained two-way interest.
• Oklahoma City championship odds remain a volume magnet with 20,768 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and 1,222,109 open interest.
• Boston Eastern Conference title traded 19,862 contracts in the last twenty-four hours with a tight one-cent spread (21c bid, 22c ask).
• Oklahoma City Western Conference title also stayed tight at 50c bid and 51c ask, with 5,124 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Anthony Edwards Clutch Player of the Year is a classic uncertainty market with a five-cent spread (47c bid, 52c ask).
• Stephen Curry three-pointers made per game leader has a nine-cent spread (45c bid, 54c ask), even after a big move.

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Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Detroit’s split screen is the tell. Detroit’s best record fell to 34c, but Detroit’s Eastern Conference title sits at 25c bid, and Detroit’s championship odds sit at 8c bid.
• Oklahoma City’s pricing stack is interesting. Oklahoma City is 51c to win the West, 39c to win the title, and 55c for best record.
• San Antonio’s top-seed surge vs. playoff certainty stands out. San Antonio is 27c for the West one-seed, while its playoff qualification is essentially locked at 99c.
• Most Improved Player is a knife fight. Jalen Johnson is up to 52c close (67.74% increase), while Deni Avdija crashed to 12c close (76.92% decline).
• Defensive Player of the Year is still top-heavy. Victor Wembanyama closed 77c (10.0% increase), while Chet Holmgren closed 19c (13.64% decline).

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• Detroit is the clearest “disagreement" market. Best record got sold, but East and title exposure stayed bid.
• The top-seed markets are volatile. Boston up, Cleveland down, and San Antonio up big.
• High-volume awards are not just noise. Cunningham MVP and Wembanyama MVP are seeing constant repositioning.
• Tight spreads are where traders agree. Boston East and Oklahoma City West are priced efficiently right now.

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Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 24. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.