Best NBA Bets Monday, February 23: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
Three NBA games tonight, and the board is basically daring you to pick your poison: a near pick-em in Detroit, a mid-range number in Memphis, and a monster spread in Houston. I’m not trying to be a hero across all three. I’m trying to get to the window twice. I’m pressing the two spots where the matchup profile actually matches the number.
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Best Bet: Houston Rockets -13.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Tonight
- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 23, 2026
- Time: 09:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Utah Jazz | 13.5 (-113) | +577 | 14.8% | 12% |
| Houston Rockets | -13.5 (-108) | -850 | 89.5% | 87% |
Odds as of February 23, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Utah can score, but they’re playing with fire. They’re 30th in points allowed (125.9), 30th in defensive rating (122.3), and 30th in assists allowed (30.3). That’s not a small leak. That’s a busted pipe.
Houston is built to turn that into a blowout. The Rockets are sixth in defensive rating (112.9) and fourth in points allowed (109.4). They clean the glass like a team that wants margin with 48.4 rebounds per game (first) and 39.7 rebounds allowed (second). Utah already coughs it up with 16.0 turnovers per game (29th). That’s how you get separation fast.
Utah is 3-7 in its last ten on the road, and Houston has been shaky at home against the number, going 3-6 against the spread in its last nine. That’s the only reason we’re not laying an even uglier number. I’m betting Houston’s defense and rebounding turn this into a long night.
Expert Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings Tonight
- Arena: FedExForum
- Location: Memphis, TN
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 23, 2026
- Time: 08:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Sacramento Kings | 3.5 (-110) | +137 | 42.2% | 39% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | -3.5 (-111) | -164 | 62.1% | 61% |
Odds as of February 23, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Sacramento’s profile is brutal for laying points with them, and I’m not doing it. They’re 29th in points per game (110.1), 30th in made threes (10.3), and 28th in defensive rating (121.2). That’s how you show up as a road dog and spend the night chasing.
Memphis isn’t some perfect machine, but they don’t need to be here. The Grizzlies are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten at home. Sacramento is 0-10 in their last ten on the road straight up, but they’ve at least been competitive versus the number at 4-6 against the spread in that stretch. That’s why I’m not getting cute with a bigger line. I’ll take the clean -3.5 and keep it moving.
The matchup math works too. Memphis is only 22nd in points allowed (117.7), so yes, they’ll give up buckets. But Sacramento’s defense is worse, allowing 121.1 points (28th), and they’re soft in the middle, allowing 12.4 points to centers (30th) and 7.6 rebounds to centers (28th). Memphis doesn’t have to be elite. They just have to be normal. That’s enough to cover this number at home.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
- Best Bet (3 units): Houston Rockets -13.5
- Expert Pick (2 units): Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
Two bets. Two clear identities. Houston’s defense plus rebounding against Utah’s bottom-tier defense is how you win by margin. Memphis at home against a Sacramento team that’s 0-10 in their last ten on the road straight up is how you avoid sweating a coin flip. Ride with me or fade me. Either way, pick a side and live with it.
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Our picks against the spread are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 23. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
