Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Milwaukee’s playoff qualification contract is the loudest warning siren on the board. It’s not a small drift. It’s a real repricing, and it’s happening alongside a Phoenix slide that lines up with the injury headlines.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

Milwaukee Playoff Qualification: crashed from 22c to 15c (down 31.82%). Volume was heavy at 6,610 contracts in the last 24 hours. The market is treating Milwaukee as a real miss risk.
Detroit Best Regular-Season Record: fell from 32c to 13c (down 59.38%). That’s a massive reset in a marquee futures lane. It also traded 5,809 contracts in the last 24 hours.
Deni Avdija: Most Improved Player dropped from 54c to 21c (down 61.11%). And it saw 23,227 contracts traded over the last 24 hours. That’s not noise.
Jalen Duren: Most Improved Player surged from 4c to 17c (up 325.0%). The market also leaned in with 41,020 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Keyonte George: Most Improved Player moved from 4c to 10c (up 150.0%). Another big percentage mover with real activity at 42,071 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Jalen Johnson: Most Improved Player jumped from 27c to 49c (up 81.48%). And it did it on 10,168 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Golden State Playoff Qualification: ripped from 47c to 60c (up 27.66%). That’s a meaningful move in a mid-range playoff market, with 216 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Phoenix Playoff Qualification: slid from 87c to 77c (down 11.49%). The timing matches the “Suns facing multiple injuries entering stretch" headline. It also saw 387 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.

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Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

San Antonio Championship Odds: the day’s volume monster at 42,347 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Open interest is also huge at 3,086,037.
Detroit Championship Odds: even bigger on the day at 43,944 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Open interest sits at 1,484,525.
Boston Championship Odds: the biggest 24-hour print on the board at 56,787 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Cade Cunningham MVP: 50,877 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. That’s elite liquidity for an awards market.
Oklahoma City Western Conference title: extremely liquid with 8,326 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 290,373 open interest. The order book is thick on both sides.
LeBron James next team (Cleveland): 868 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, with a three-cent spread (41c bid, 44c ask). That’s a fairly tight market for a “next team" contract.
Utah and Memphis team total markets tonight: several show extreme spreads like 50c bid / 99c ask, which scream thin liquidity and price fragility.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

Oklahoma City title stack: Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title is 52c, while its championship is 40c. That gap is tight enough to watch for any sudden divergence.
Los Angeles Lakers Western Conference title: dropped from 5c to 3c (down 40.0%). It’s a small-price market, but the percentage move is still meaningful.
Rudy Gobert Defensive Player of the Year: cut from 8c to 4c (down 50.0%). That lines up with the “Rudy Gobert suspended one game" headline.
Stephen Curry three-pointers made per game leader: moved from 48c to 63c (up 31.25%) with 3,518 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. That’s a notable league-leader push.
Kon Knueppel three-pointers made per game leader: fell from 46c to 26c (down 43.48%). That’s a big reversal in a niche leader market.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

Most Improved Player is the main battleground right now. Duren, George, and Johnson all posted huge percentage moves.
Milwaukee’s playoff price is the cleanest “panic" signal. The move was sharp, and volume backed it up.
Phoenix is the injury-sensitive futures tell. The playoff contract slid hard on the same day as the injuries headline.
Be careful in tonight’s team total markets. Several are showing ultra-wide spreads, which can snap back fast.

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Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 23. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.