Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Milwaukee’s playoff qualification price didn’t just move today. It snapped from longshot territory into a real conversation, and it did it on heavy volume. That’s the kind of repricing that usually signals that new information is being absorbed quickly.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Qualification: surged from 11c to 21c (90.91% increase). It also traded 8,629 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, one of the biggest spikes on the board.
• Chicago Bulls Playoff Qualification: jumped from 2c to 4c (100.0% increase). That is still a tiny base, but it is a clean doubling.
• Donovan Mitchell Three-Pointers Made Per Game Leader: ripped from 7c to 16c (128.57% increase). The move is sharp, but it is still a low-probability contract.
• Victor Wembanyama Finals Most Valuable Player: pushed from 6c to 10c (66.67% increase), with 1,802 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Cade Cunningham Finals Most Valuable Player: climbed from 8c to 14c (75.0% increase). That pairs with a separate MVP bid-up later in the awards board.
• Jaylen Brown MVP: moved from 3c to 5c (66.67% increase) on massive activity, with 66,233 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
• Jalen Duren Most Improved Player: surged from 18c to 31c (72.22% increase). It is one of the biggest percentage moves among award contenders.
• Stephen Curry Three-Pointers Made Per Game Leader: fell from 54c to 43c (-20.37%), a meaningful reset in a high-profile leader market.
• Jalen Johnson Most Improved Player: dropped from 52c to 41c (-21.15%) after being the clear top of that board.
• Detroit Pistons Eastern Conference Title: slid from 26c to 22c (-15.38%), even as Detroit remains priced as a top-tier East contender.
• Nikola Jokic MVP: dropped from 25c to 22c (-12.0%). That came the same day a recap headline noted Jokic scored 30 in a win over Boston.
• Phoenix Suns Playoff Qualification: fell from 79c to 72c (-8.86%). That is a notable haircut for a team still priced above seventy cents.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

• San Antonio Spurs Western Conference title was the volume monster, with 31,197 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The price also rose from 18c to 21c (16.67% increase).
• Cade Cunningham MVP led the entire awards board in activity, with 141,042 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The contract is now 17c, last traded with a 16c bid and 17c ask.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP stayed steady at 54c last traded, but still saw 25,452 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That is sustained two-way interest, not a quiet leader.
• Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conference title traded 10,036 contracts in the last twenty-four hours with a tight 24c bid and 25c ask. That is efficient pricing for a liquid futures market.
• Los Angeles Clippers playoff qualification saw 6,623 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and a wide four-cent spread (44c bid, 48c ask). That is a volatility signal.
• Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year remains the biggest open-interest award, with 623,451 open interest, a tight 74c bid, and a 75c ask.

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Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Oklahoma City Thunder West one seed: last traded 73c, but the market is 68c bid and 73c ask. That five-cent gap is big for a top-seed market.
• Detroit Pistons East one seed: last traded 84c with a tight 82c bid and 83c ask, but the day-over-day direction was down -1.18%. Traders are paying up, but not chasing.
• San Antonio Spurs West one seed: last traded 40c and moved 26.92% on the day. The spread is also wide at 28c bid and 33c ask.
• Most Improved Player board: it is getting reshuffled fast. Jalen Duren is up big, while Jalen Johnson is down big, and Deni Avdija still has real liquidity at 17,908 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• Milwaukee’s playoff qualification repricing is the headline. The move was huge, and the volume confirmed it.
• San Antonio’s West title market is where traders are most active right now. Thirty-one thousand contracts in a day is not noise.
• The MVP market has two liquidity centers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads on price, while Cade Cunningham leads on daily volume.
• Watch the wide spreads in seed markets. Oklahoma City and San Antonio both show meaningful uncertainty at the top.

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Our NBA prediction market report is produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to covering the NBA. By combining proprietary data with real-time analysis, the team breaks down the movers and shakers on Kalshi.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 26. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.