Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Thursday, February 26

Ten NBA games on the board tonight, but two are calling our name, both nationally televised on Amazon Prime. Orlando at Houston and Minnesota at Los Angeles are where the props market has given us something to work with. That’s where we’re going.

The best angle in this market is simple. Target the guys with four-of-five form, and fade the ones sitting at one-of-five.

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The Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 13.5 Points

Where to Watch the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

• Arena: Intuit Dome
• Location: Inglewood, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 26, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 26, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Jaden McDaniels brings the best recent profile on the board. He has cleared 13.5 points in four of his last five games. That is the only 4/5 hit rate available in this matchup. At -128, the market is pricing it in, but the form is still the cleanest.

The Pick: Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Points

Where to Watch the Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic Tonight

• Arena: Kia Center
• Location: Orlando, FL
• Where to Watch: Amazon Prime
• Date: February 26, 2026
• Time: 07:30 PM ET

Odds as of February 26, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Kevin Durant is the cleanest over on the board tonight. His season median is 26.0 points, right above the 25.5 line, meaning he has cleared this number in more than half his games this season. And in 25% of his outings, he goes for 31 or more. The line is essentially asking you to bet the under on an elite scorer who is playing to this number on average.

The matchup helps. Franz Wagner (ankle) is out for Orlando, their most versatile perimeter defender and one of the few guys who can bother Durant with length and activity. Without Wagner, Orlando’s wing defense loses its best option. Orlando also ranks 24th in threes made per game (11.6), which means their offensive pace is limited, and Durant will need to carry Houston’s scoring load.

One more layer: Houston is on the back end of a back-to-back, and Durant actually elevates in these spots. He averages 29.6 points on zero days’ rest. This is a line set just below his median, against a defense missing its best wing, in a spot where he historically scores more. Give me Durant over 25.5.

The Pick: Julius Randle Under 18.5 Points

Where to Watch the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

• Arena: Intuit Dome
• Location: Inglewood, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 26, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 26, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Julius Randle is also sitting on a cold stretch at this number. He has cleared 18.5 points in one of his last five games. The line is still 18.5, which leaves less margin for a bounce-back. And it gets more interesting with the matchup: Randle has cleared 18.5 points just twice in five games against the Clippers since joining the Timberwolves. At -118, the under is priced like a coin flip, but the recent form and the head-to-head history say otherwise.

The Pick: Kris Dunn Under 8.5 Points

Where to Watch the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

• Arena: Intuit Dome
• Location: Inglewood, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 26, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 26, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Kris Dunn is another fade spot based on recent scoring. He has gone over 8.5 points in one of his last five games. The best part is the price. At plus money (+100), the under does not need perfection to show value. It just needs the same scoring role Dunn has shown lately.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

Two nationally televised Amazon Prime games, four clear angles. Durant over 25.5 is the marquee play — elite scorer, line at his median, best Orlando defender out. McDaniels over 13.5 is the 4/5 form play at a fair price. The card rounds out with two cold-streak fades in Randle under 18.5 and Dunn under 8.5. Ride with me or fade me. Either way, pick a side and live with it.

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Our player prop picks are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 26. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.