Andre “Touchy” Fili faces replacement Bill “Senor Perfecto” Algeo. Fili enters this contest on a three-fight winless streak and has only one win over his past four bouts. Algeo comes in for Lando Vannata, who bowed out due to injury.
The power advantage will be in Fili’s corner, having nine of his 21 wins via knockout. Algeo should have the grappling advantage and will at least be more of a submission threat.
It’s a tough fight to call, but Fili should have enough wrestling to keep this fight standing with a 68% takedown defense rate. The question about how much Fili has left in the tank should be answered in the fight.
Fili has faced better opponents in his career and should be able to pull off the win. Take Fili at -130.
Live Dog With the Big Boys
Tanner Boser enters this bout off a knockout of Ovince Saint Preux but has two losses in his past three fights. Rodrigo Nascimento has only won once in his three UFC fights. Still, his no-contest was originally a TKO win (overturned after testing positive for Ritalin), and his loss was to No. 11 Chris Daukaus.
Nascimento will have a 4.5-inch reach advantage, but Boser should have more power. The Brazilian will try to use his striking to get into the clinch and take this fight to the ground, where he has six career submissions. Besides losing to Daukaus, Nascimento has finished all his fights (he has never gone the distance).
At +154, look for Nascimento to pull off the upset.
Bantamwieght Main Event
Cory Sandhagen vs. Song Yadong Odds
Odds to Win: Sandhagen -215 | Yadong +164
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ +160
Submission +850 | Decision -160
Will the fight go the distance? Yes -146 | No +114
Cory Sandhagen enters the cage with a three-inch height and three-inch reach advantage.
Song Yadong has won three straight contests and is 8-1-1 in ten UFC fights. Meanwhile, Sandhagen is 7-3 in his ten UFC bouts, but his losses were to top bantamweights Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw, and Petr Yan. He also has notable wins over Iuri Alcantara, Mario Bautista, John Lineker, Raphael Assuncao, Marlon Moraes, and Frankie Edgar.
Sandhagen is a very smooth striker that can alternate stances and throws at a high volume of 6.42 significant strikes per minute. Yadong is a well-rounded fighter that also throws at a high volume but averages 1.5 fewer significant strikes per minute than Sandhagen.
Both fighters have an over 60% takedown defense success rate. Sandhagen is a sizable favorite at -215, but Yadong is a durable fighter, so picking the American to win by decision at +115 could be a way to get a more favorable payout.
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