NFL Week 3 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 3. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Ravens -3, over/under 52
Week 3 will save its best for last as we get the premiere Monday night matchup of the year. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will be traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens on Monday Night Football. This contest is sure to attract more action than the normal Monday contest, if for no other reason for the sheer amount of casuals who will be tuning into this matchup of Super Bowl favorites. No disrespect to the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night, but this is the type of excitement prime time football should generate.
Baltimore is listed at +500 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, Kansas City is right behind them at +550. This was the matchup many expected to see in last year’s AFC Championship game before Derrick Henry came and almost single-handedly put those plans to ruin. They spent their offseason addressing their deficiencies and will be able to put themselves to the test as the team with the best record in the AFC in 2019 takes on the defending champs.
Kansas City made some power moves of their own this offseason but showed some of their warts against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2, namely their offensive line. As much as Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif needs to be commended for his decision to work in long-term care facilities, the segment of the Canadian population hardest hit by COVID-19, his absence has left a massive hole on the offensive line that really shows up against teams with multiple good to great pass rushers. The Chiefs will have two keys to victory in Week 3, a strong running game and dealing with the Ravens defensive front.
The -3 for the road team is also sure to generate a lot of interest from sharps and the public alike. It will be highly interesting to see which way (if any) this line moves by kickoff. Kansas City has been hot against the spread recently, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records. Baltimore has been dominant as well, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 contests against the AFC.
The 52 point over/under seems destined to drop, as it opened at 52.5 at books who posted their lines before our friends at FanDuel. One of the most interesting trends is that the under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four road contests. The under is also 4-0 in Baltimore’s last four games as a favorite.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Odds: Seahawks -4.5, over/under 55.5
The Dallas Cowboys will be a weekly fixture here, as America’s team often generates one of the highest total amounts wagered of the week. After what we witnessed in Week 2, specifically in Sunday Night Football, which took place after this line was posted, this line is destined to see some movement.
Seattle continues to shoot themselves in the foot on offense but showed that they are already nearing playoff form against the New England Patriots. Their defense is much improved with Jamal Adams, and the offense is scorching. Russell Wilson has now thrown at least four touchdown passes in back-to-back games, with the four passing touchdowns he hung on the Patriots corners being equal to the amount the position group gave up in all of 2019. Now 2-0 on the season, the Seahawks will be looking to make it 3-0 against a suspect Cowboys defense.
The Dallas Cowboys have shown flashes so far this season. Their offense has the makings of one that can take the mantle as the best in the NFL. However, their defense, more specifically their secondary, may be their undoing. Dallas stormed back with 30 second-half points to avoid starting the season 0-2, but it became abundantly clear throughout the game that Dallas is going to have massive issues with the top offenses in the NFL. Luckily, they play in one of the two weakest divisions in the league and can stumble their way into a bye week.
The opening line of -4.5 is a very interesting number. Seattle has indeed been the better team to this point of the season, but there is likely to be some immediate sharp action that moves this line one way or another. Bettor tendencies could result in more movement next weekend, making this potentially one of the most volatile spreads of the week. The underdog is 6-1 in the last seven contests between these two teams.
The over/under for this contest has been set at a whopping 55.5 points. Despite the high number, the expectation is that this total will still see action on both sides before taking a permanent move in one direction. Both of these teams have proven that they have among the most explosive offenses in the NFL. However, the under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 contests as a road underdog. Seattle’s trend history suggests that the over may be in play despite the high total, as the over is 5-2 in the Seahawks last seven contests as a home favorite.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans
Odds: Saints -4.5, over/under NA
One of the marquee games of the week, Green Bay versus New Orleans in Week 3, is sure to generate plenty of bettor interest. The hope is that Michael Thomas will be able to return to make this a truly star-studded affair, but Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees for potentially the last time ever is appointment viewing.
Green Bay has been firing on all cylinders this season on the offensive side of the ball. They gave up entirely too many points to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 but looked better against the Detroit Lions (albeit without top receiver Kenny Golladay). Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man possessed and has led his team to a 2-0 start. Green Bay will be heading to the Super Bowl if their defense can start clicking in the same fashion that their offense has over the first two weeks of the season.
New Orleans sits at 1-0 heading into Monday Night Football for Week 2. How they look without Michael Thomas will determine whether they enter their Week 3 matchup against the Packers at 2-0 or 1-1. This is likely the last ride for Drew Brees, so the Saints will be looking for their offseason additions like Emmanuel Sanders, and Cesar Ruiz can help put them over the top. The team is in the market for pass-rush help, so don’t be surprised to see some sort of transaction materialize by the trade deadline.
The opening line of -4.5 on New Orleans is sure to elicit an immediate reaction from early bettors and sharps. The public is likely to lean one way, while the sharps lean another. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams, but we will need to wait and see if that trend can hold for the 2020 season. This line could see major movement by the time Monday Night Football for Week 2 is wrapped up and could be outright adjusted depending on the result.
The over/under for this contest has yet to be posted by FanDuel. New Orleans plays on Monday night, and Michael Thomas’ availability for Week 3 are still in question. How the Saints fare against the Las Vegas Raiders, both in form and injury will affect the total for this contest. Michael Thomas will likely affect the total as well, but we should still get a line prior to knowing Thomas’ status on Friday.
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
Odds: Titans -2.5, over/under 46
The Tennessee Titans have been impressive this season. Ryan Tannehill has not regressed as some feared he might, and the offense has been able to get by without Derrick Henry destroying the will of his opponents. The addition of Jadeveon Clowney has made the defensive front intimidating. The addition of Kristian Fulton to the cornerback group gives the Titans what could turn into a formidable trio by the end of the regular season.
The Minnesota Vikings still possess the offensive explosiveness to score with most teams (when Kirk Cousins is not a disaster). Still, their defense, particularly their cornerbacks, are going to need to step up. The Vikings spent two early draft picks at the position, bringing in Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler, with the latter winning an opening day job. If the two impressive rookie prospects can take over as the starters by season’s end, they should have made enough progress to make some noise when it counts.
This is another contest that seems destined to see some line movement this week. The -2.5 could have likely been assigned to either team without anyone blinking. The spread trends are interesting for this contest with the Titans 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests, and the Vikings 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests as underdogs.
The 46 point over/under is even more intriguing. Bettors are going to have a definitive lean when it comes to this total. However, which side any one individual leans towards is hard to predict. The top trends don’t help much as the under is 5-1 in the Vikings last six contests as a home underdog. The over is 6-1 in the Titans last seven contests as a favorite.
Be sure to check out the rest of Week 2’s NFL lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.