Week 12 NFL Player Props
Week 12 NFL Player Props
We were well on our way. It was in the bag. Stick a fork in it because it was done. Not so fast, said Aaron Rodgers. Dalvin Cook had already finished his work. The Vikings’ back went well over the 102 rushing yards we needed after a 115-yard performance in a bitter-sweet loss to the Cowboys. The sweet; the recommended over came through. The bitter; the upset loss meant elimination from the survivor pool.
Back to Mr. Rodgers. The Colts defense looked to have things wrapped up in the fourth quarter with Rodgers well under the 288 passing yards he needed to make the over. But what does Mr. Packer go and do? He takes his team on a game-tying drive with 1:25 left from his 6-yard line. Eighty-six passing yards later, and our perfect props week is shattered.
But let’s not live in the past and get back on the horse to go after that ever-elusive perfect props pick weekend. As always, all our odds proudly come your way from our friends at FanDuel.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
Steering the Buccaneers pirate ship has undoubtedly been an up and down first season for Tom Brady. Tampa’s offense and Brady himself have been feast or famine in many games this year. Perhaps the player starving the most this season has been Mike Evans.
The three-time Pro Bowl receiver is ironically having the worst season of his NFL career playing with the best quarterback he’s ever had. Evans is averaging a career-low of 4.09 catches and 51.2 receiving yards per game. Not only are the numbers not there, but he’s not getting the opportunities.
The former Texas A&M standout is averaging just 6.5 targets per game. A far cry from the 9.1 looks Jameis Winston gave the wideout last season and an even farther cry from his 9.3 career average coming into 2020. Even Bucs Head Coach Bruce Arians has called out Brady publicly for not utilizing Evans. Following their second loss of the season to the Saints, Arians bluntly bellowed, “He didn’t get targeted. That’s all. Mike was open.”
This week Evans matches up with a pass defense even better than New Orleans. The Chiefs are second-best in the league defending the wide receiver position allowing just 138.8 yards per game. KC ranks fifth, giving up 11.3 catches per game to wideouts while sporting a No. 6 ranking in touchdowns allowed to WRs with eight on the year. They are more than just a one-trick pony, though, defending all positions in the passing game quite well.
Kansas City’s secondary is allowing just 221.6 passing yards per game, good for eighth in the league. Giving up 10.8 receptions per game equals a No. 9 ranking in the NFL while the Chiefs are tied for sixth with ten interceptions on the season.
It looks like another frustrating day for Mike Evans.
The Pick: Under 52.5 receiving yards (-110)
Patriots QB Cam Newton
Brady’s replacement in New England gets the call for the second part of our quest for props perfection.
While no one will compare Newton’s passing prowess with Brady, no one will compare Brady’s running game to Newton either. The former Carolina Panther has four games of 47 or more yards on the ground this season and at times has looked unstoppable, especially at home.
Newton is putting up impressive numbers on the ground in Foxborough. The 2015 NFL MVP is going off for 43.6 yards per game on a 4.4 yard per carry clip in his friendly confines. While on the road, Newton is picking up just over 30 yards per game on a 3.7-yard average carry on the road. Hosting the Arizona Cardinals is an excellent spot for the rumbling quarterback.
Arizona is allowing the third-most rushing yards in the league with 269 given up to quarterbacks this year. The Cardinals have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to the QB position, sixth-most in the NFL. In general, Arizona hasn’t been particularly good at stopping the run allowing an NFL bottom ten 124.7 yards per game.
Last week Seattle ran all over Arizona to the tune of 165 yards, 42 of which belonged to Russell Wilson. This came after Wilson ran amuck for 84 yards against them in Week 7. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen gashed into the Cards defense for 38 yards on the ground himself two weeks ago.
Albeit four years ago, the last time Newton faced Arizona, he ran wild for 43 yards, just enough to get over today’s number. Here’s to history repeating itself this week.
The Pick: Over 40.5 rushing yards (-110)