UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern & PSG Among Best Bets
Sameer Murji
Host · Writer
Eight of the best teams in Europe remain, but only one can win it all. The UEFA Champions League is about to get interesting as the quarterfinals begin this week.
Until now, this year’s edition of the competition has been lackluster. Pundits from all over the world have mentioned that the quality of the competitors this year was weak, and viewership in the group stage hit an all-time low. This has prompted UEFA to change the competition format starting next year.
Fans don’t realize that the impending rule changes make this year’s competition even more important. It’s the last iteration of a tournament formed 69 years ago. It’s the end of an era.
The defending champions, Manchester City (+170), are clear favorites to repeat but have a juggernaut quarterfinal matchup against Real Madrid (+600). Current Premier League leaders Arsenal (+500) are licking their lips at the prospect of playing against a struggling Bayern Munich (+650), while Kylian Mbappe’s PSG (+750) have a clear path to the finals.
Here are my best bets for the first legs of the quarterfinals.
All Odds Courtesy Of Fanduel Sportsbook
Bayern Munich Double Chance (+110)
Heading to the Emirates for the first leg of the quarterfinals, Bayern Munich have a tall task ahead of them. Arsenal have only lost one game at home all season, are first in the English Premier League, and have only one loss in all competitions in 2024. Munich have played the worst soccer the club has seen over the past decade, are on a two-game losing streak, and their manager publicly conceded the Bundesliga title race over the past two weeks. How can I possibly think the Germans have a chance?
One reason: experience.
Bayern have historically dominated Arsenal in European competitions. The Germans have a 7-3-2 record against the Gunners all time and have won the last three meetings between these teams by a 5-1 scoreline. With no other chance to win trophies this season, Munich will be all in on causing the upset in the quarterfinals. Furthermore, this Bayern team has a plethora of experience as they have eight players who have won the competition.
With a motivated Harry Kane to spearhead this group, I expect Bayern to get a result in London and hold an advantage heading into the second leg.
My prediction is a 1-1 draw, but I would also consider taking Harry Kane anytime goal (+210) due to his torrid pace this season and his love for scoring against Arsenal. The Englishman has scored 14 goals in just 19 games against the Gunners.
Under 2.5 in Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund (-118)
If you love defensive, tactical games, this battle of the dark arts will keep you interested. Otherwise, get ready for a snoozefest. Take under 2.5 goals (-118) when Atletico Madrid host Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday.
Dortmund have only gone over this total once in this year’s competition. A team that previously relied on their attacking prowess has changed their tune this year, leaking the least amount of goals compared to anyone left in the final eight. They face their toughest test by traveling to Madrid, where Atletico has been scoring goals for fun. Dortmund know they have to squeak out at least a close game if they want to make it to the next rounds, which means defend, defend, defend!
On the other hand, Atletico has historically relied on the dark arts at this stage of the competition. The club has only made a deep run when they are defensively stout, and after escaping Inter through penalties, I expect them to continue scraping by.
Lastly, these two clubs have played in Madrid twice before, with neither of those fixtures having over two goals. This one is a no-brainer at -118 for the game to stay under its total, considering the two coaches in charge.
PSG Moneyline (-105)
Paris Saint-Germain have already wrapped up Ligue 1 and are looking to send Kylian Mbappe off in style during his farewell tour. They should make easy work of an inexperienced Barcelona team at home, and the odds are disrespectful to the best team in France.
The French league winners have only lost three games all season, with only one of those coming at home. They are on a 27-game unbeaten streak in all competitions and have outscored their opponents by 48 goals in that span. Mbappe is leading the UEFA Champions League Golden Boot race with six goals in the competition, scoring three of four goals in their Round-of-16 tie versus Real Sociedad.
This team is healthy and dominant, and all of their stars are clicking at the right time. With a clear path to the final for Paris, Barcelona can only hope the quarterfinals don’t get out of hand after the first leg. Take PSG to cruise to a win at -105.
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