PGA TOUR Genesis Invitational Betting Picks & Analysis
Tourney and Course Overview
The gorgeous Pacific Palisades just north of Santa Monica is the home of this week’s Genesis Invitational that boasts a major-esque field. Twelve of the top 15 ranked players in the world will be on hand to try and tackle this difficult George Thomas/William Bell designed course and etch their name on a trophy for Tiger Woods sponsored event. Unfortunately, Woods will not tee it up this week as he continues to recover from a January back surgery, but he is on hand to do his other host duties.
A year ago, Adam Scott outlasted a Sunday pairing with Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy to capture this title at a 35-1 price. This 7,322 Par 71 is lined with difficult fairways to hit, quick POA greens, and trouble waiting for those with errant irons. Year in and year out, playing as one of the hardest courses on TOUR, driving (both distance and accuracy) will be my key stat to consider when filling out my card and DFS lineups.
All prices through FanDuel Sportsbook.
There is some tasty value out there this week with outrights, that is, of course, if Dustin Johnson decides to take a week off from winning a golf tournament.
Buying a dip in price, I will start my card with Matthew Wolff (+8000). Wolff has struggled of late, but some or all of that can be attributed to a blister injury that he says he has recovered from, and it showed with a turnaround at the Waste Management two weeks ago, where he made the cut and carded three rounds in the 60s. This is a bet on upside as Wolff can drive it as far and accurate as anyone when he is on his game, and he has proven in his young career that he can contend in the biggest tournaments with the strongest fields.
Another week and I still cannot quit Bubba Watson (+4300). I normally do not play the “horse for the course” angle, but Bubba (a three-time winner here) putts his best on POA greens and comes in riding some slight momentum after carding a final round 65 in Phoenix his last start. This is a guy who wins on courses he is comfortable at (Riviera, Augusta, River Highlands), so I expect him to feel right at home this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000) offers similar value as he finished T5 here a year ago while losing 3.5 strokes putting. While lackluster putting performances are quite normal occurrences for Matsuyama, he has shown a little life with the flat stick of late, and the number is right as he looks to return to his winning ways for the first time in over three years.
I mentioned driving being the name of the game at Riviera, and right now, when it comes to driving the golf ball, you can never overlook the man who is pushing the limits of it, Bryson DeChambeau (+1700). We are getting a slight bump in price here as he has not won since the U.S. Open in September, but we should remember he has only played three times in America since then, spending a lot of time continuing to work on his swing and driving distance. He is another player who putts his best on POA greens and offers good course history here (T5 and T15 the last two years).
Matthew Wolff Outright (+8000)
Matthew Wolff Top 10 (+700)
Bubba Watson Outright (+4300)
Hideki Matsuyama Outright (+4000)
Bryson DeChambeau Outright (+1700)