Top U.S. Open Props Picks: Best Golf Bets for Oakmont

The U.S. Open always brings out the best in players—and the sharpest bets from golf handicappers. With a tough test ahead at Oakmont, value isn’t just found in outright winners. The prop market is loaded with opportunity, from top 10s and 20s to first-round leader darts and nationality specials.

Here’s a breakdown of the top props to consider for the 2025 U.S. Open.

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Top 10s, 20s & 40s: Safer Props with Value

Not every U.S. Open bet needs to be a longshot. For value bettors, the placement markets offer plenty of punch:

• Jon Rahm Top 10 (+100): A consistent contender in majors, Rahm still presents value at plus money. Some books had him as high as +130.

• Shane Lowry Top 20 (+115): With elite iron play and a U.S. Open résumé, Lowry feels underpriced here.

• Sepp Straka Top 20 (+115): A well-rounded game makes Straka a trendy pick—steady and trustworthy.

• Harris English Top 20 (+195): Quietly putting together a solid season and thrives in grind-it-out setups.

• Ben Griffin Top 20 (+175): Under the radar but dangerous. One of the most popular sleeper picks in the field.

• Cameron Young Top 40 (+105): Boom-or-bust candidate, but a fair number to hedge exposure.

• Denny McCarthy Top 40 (+105): His flatstick always keeps him competitive in majors.

First Round Leader Bombs: Opening Day Fireworks

Scoring early in a major can pay big dividends—especially in the FRL market. Here’s where the sharps are targeting:

• Scottie Scheffler (+1100): One of the few ways to get Scheffler at double-digit odds all week.

• Tommy Fleetwood (+4000): A known fast starter with a strong U.S. Open record.

• Patrick Cantlay (+4500): A FRL wildcard with the skill to put it together for 18.

• Jordan Spieth (+5500): Health questions linger, but Spieth thrives when least expected.

• Collin Morikawa (+3500): Pure iron play and a strong FRL profile make this a sneaky sharp pick.

• Russell Henley (+6000): Elite ball-striker with a game that fits Pinehurst’s demand for precision.

• Cameron Young (+7500): Tantalizing talent at a deep price.

• Denny McCarthy (+8000): Loves difficult setups, a solid dart throw.

• Matthew Pavon (+15000): The “French lingerer” always seems to pop on tough layouts—big price, big potential.

Specialty Props: Nationalities & Round Leaders

Digging deeper into the prop board brings value in nationality and round-specific markets:

• Top Englishman – Matthew Fitzpatrick (+700): In a field that includes Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood, Fitz still stands out for his U.S. Open experience.

• Top Asian – Hideki Matsuyama (+300): Clear class of the category, especially on difficult tracks.

• Top South American – Joaquin Niemann (+135): A solid number for a player with top-tier LIV form.

• Top Nordic – Ludvig Åberg (+125): Aberg leads a smaller pool, giving him strong win equity.

More Scheffler Angles: Creative Props for Golf’s Alpha

• Round 2 Leader – Scottie Scheffler (+600): For those who think he takes a day to heat up.

• Lowest Par 5 Scorer – Scheffler (+2500): He ranks top 5 in par 5 scoring this season. Great value for this niche market.

Matchups: Head-to-Head Leans Worth Locking In

Looking to fade or ride momentum? These player-vs-player matchups offer intriguing angles:

• Lowry over McIlroy (+130): Rory’s form is shaky after a missed cut; Lowry is trending up.

• Åberg over Justin Thomas (-120): JT has been inconsistent, while Åberg’s tee-to-green game is locked in.

• Jon Rahm over Rory McIlroy (-120): Rahm brings steadiness; Rory is still searching.

Bonus Longshot: The Hammer of Thor

• Thorbjørn Olesen – Top Dane (+260): Nicknamed “The Prime Minister,” Olesen is live in nationality props with soft competition.

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