2025 John Deere Classic Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Tournament Outlook

As always, it’s tough sledding at the John Deere Classic with a limited number of top golfers participating in Silvis, Illinois. You might even say you need some tractor-like machine to plow through the field to make some picks for this event at TPC Deere Run. Nonetheless, we’ve come up with some top-notch selections to set off a frenzy of fireworks for July 4th weekend, PGA style.

Let’s tee off and shoot for the cup.

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TPC Deere Run Course Outlook

TPC Deere Run sets the stage this week with its classic Parkland layout that’s as inviting as it is demanding for the field at the John Deere Classic. Stretched to 7,289 yards as a par 71, the course tempts players with wide, forgiving fairways, generous Bentgrass greens averaging 5,500 square feet, and a trio of reachable par-5s that beg for aggressive play. But there’s a twist—76 strategically placed bunkers, three water hazards, dramatic elevation shifts, and heavily sloped fairways create plenty of chances for missteps.

With seven par-4s under 450 yards, birdies will flow freely for those who find fairways and keep the putter warm, but closing stretches like the beefy 484-yard 14th and 476-yard 18th can bite back late. Historically, one of the Tour’s more scoreable stops—ranking as the 11th easiest last year with an average score more than two strokes under par—TPC Deere Run rewards those who stay aggressive yet precise. Expect fireworks over the Fourth of July weekend as players chase another winning total well beyond 20-under.

Kevin Yu Top 20 Finish (Incl. Ties) +160

Kevin Yu might be the best golfer you’ve never heard of. The Arizona State alum has quietly been putting together a solid season, with little fanfare or attention. Yu has seven top-25 finishes to his name this season and has a pair of top-5 performances over the past five weeks. One of those showings was a third-place finish at the RBC Canadian Open.

Yu’s game aligns well with this course, where accuracy and solid iron play are highly valued. The 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship winner sits 58th in driving accuracy, hitting almost 62% of fairways on the year. His driver accuracy, coupled with a 40th rank in driving distance, thanks to hitting it 307 yards per drive, put him sixth on Tour in strokes gained off the tee (0.587).

Kevin Yu is also outstanding with his irons, sitting 28th in strokes gained: approach to green (0.434), 18th with a greens in regulation percentage of 69.68% and 61st in approach from inside 200 yards. On a course with plenty of Par 4s, Yu’s 35th ranking with an average score of four on such holes also gives him a leg up. 

While his putting could be better, since it’s another key factor on these bentgrass greens, all is not lost in that area. While Yu ranks below the field in putts per round (136th – 29.25) and one-putt percentage (127th – 38.29%), his 42nd ranking in putting average (1.738) provides some salvation on the green.

The golfer from Chinese Taipei has already had some success at the John Deere. Yu finished T-20 at last year’s event, which featured a second-round 63 for the 26-year-old. Yu was even better a year earlier with a T-6 finish, where he went 67 or better in each of his final three rounds.

While I went a little conservative, picking Yu to finish in the top 20, a top 10 bet at +340 is undoubtedly worth a roll, considering his recent play and skill set for TPC Deere Run.

Ben Griffin Win Only +1600

In a field without any huge-name golfers, there is no better time to pick Ben Griffin for his fourth Tour win and third this season. Griffin comes in as the 2025 Charles Schwab and Zurich Classic champion. The 29-year-old is having a breakout campaign with 11 top-25 and eight top-10 finishes this year. Griffin’s steady play in 2025 has him ranked sixth in the FedEx Cup points race, while he is playing the best golf of his career.

The North Carolina native also shows solid play off the tee, ranking 56th in total driving and 46th in strokes gained off the tee (0.257). While he’s good from the boxes, the closer to the hole, the better Griffin gets. He ranks 32nd in strokes gained: approach to green (0.415) and 19th in greens hit in regulation with a 69.66% success rate. Right outside the green, Griffin ranks 38th in sand save percentage (62.40%), which will come in handy facing those 76 strategically placed bunkers at TPC Deere Run.

In addition to being accurate off the tee and sharp with your irons, putting is a major factor on this course. Despite some of his advanced analytics being unfavorable on the green, Griffin still manages to make it work. The 29-year-old has worse than average numbers in putts per round (120th – 29.12), putting average (88th – 1.756) and one-putt percentage (121st – 39.11%), yet still ranks 35th, gaining 0.255 strokes with the flatstick.

Ben Griffin was right in the mix at last year’s John Deere Classic. He shot the low final round of the day, after a 62 got him to T-5 with a final score of 23 under. You can bet this better version of Ben will be going for it all this weekend.

Denny McCarthy 1st Round Leader +4500

I saved our biggest swing with the most fireworks for last. Here’s hoping Denny McCarthy can bring those roman candles a day early and get out to a good start on July 3rd. The primary reason I chose this pick is its obvious value. McCarthy is the third favorite to win at +2500, but well down the list for first-round leader. I couldn’t ignore that kind of discrepancy.

McCarthy is no stranger to this tournament or course. Of our picks, he has the most experience at the TPC Deere run, having participated in six John Deere Classics, all in the past seven years. McCarthy has finished T-7 or better in three straight John Deere’s, while shooting well in the opening rounds. Last year, the University of Virginia product opened with a round of 64, following a 66 in 2022.

McCarthy is having a fine season, making the cut in all 16 events he’s played. The 32-year-old is more active than your average golfer and has eight top 25s and two top 10s to show for it this season. McCarthy’s two best showings this year came as a T-5 finish at the Genesis and a very impressive T-8 at the PGA Championship in May. While not always the quickest of starters, McCarthy shot an opening round of 64 to kick off the season at the Sony Open and a season-best 62 opener at the Truist.

The two-time Tour tournament runner-up is still looking for his first PGA win, and he has the tools for this track. Most importantly, McCarthy is an excellent putter. He ranks ninth in strokes gained with the flatstick at 0.604, 72nd in putts per round (28.70), and 72nd in one-putt percentage (40.54%).

The Rockville, Maryland, native is also very dangerous with his irons. McCarthy sits 64th in strokes gained: approach to green (0.174), 58th inside of 200 yards, and 75th on par 4s, which Deere Run is full of.

Coming off a T-12 finish at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago, McCarthy has the game and experience on this course to make a run. Here’s to him popping it off early and getting it done in the opening round.

John Deere Classic Best Bets

• Kevin Yu Top 20 Finish (Incl. Ties) +160
• Ben Griffin Win Only +1600
• Denny McCarthy 1st Round Leader +4500