PGA TOUR Sony Open Betting Picks & Analysis
Tourney and Course Overview
We get our first full-field event of the 2021 PGA TOUR season as the golfers head to Waialae CC for the Sony Open.
This is an interesting course because no metrics stand out as overly important when looking at Data Golf’s Course Fit tool:
Overall, everything just seems to matter less compared to other PGA courses. That said, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Putting are both over-indexed compared to an average TOUR event when looking at the historical event data.
Given this course is a short par 70 at 7,044 yards, various skillsets can succeed here.
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Near the top of the board, I was able to get Sungjae Im and Daniel Berger at +2200 and +2000 before the odds changed after the Patrick Reed withdrawal. They’ve since dropped to +1800 and +1600. Sungjae played well last week at the Tournament of Champions, and he enters this tournament, ranking 16th and fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over his last 50 rounds.
Berger is in the same boat, putting together a 10th-place finish last week. Additionally, he ranks seventh and eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Berger has a fairly solid game that should be able to exploit this course.
If you’re looking to just pepper this range, Abraham Ancer is likely undervalued at +3200 — considering golfers with comparable skillsets are priced much lower. He’s in great form, ranking seventh in Total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds.
Brian Harman is listed at +250 for a top-20 finish, and his lack of distance won’t be penalized at this venue. Overall, he ranks 29th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 21st in Total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds. Harman owns four top-20 finishes here over his last seven appearances. At +250, Harman needs to have a hit rate of just 28.6% to break even on this bet over the long term. I also bet Harman at +6600 outright earlier in the week.