HORSE RACING · 7 months ago

5 Longshot Horses to Bet at the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Grant White

Host · Writer

Grande (10-1)
The curse of parimutuel betting is that true value is hard to find. In that regard, we should see Grande's morning line price rise as we approach post-time.

With just three races under his belt, this Todd Pletcher-trained colt has been at his best every time he steps on the track. Sired by Preakness winner Curlin, Grande comes from Triple Crown-winning progeny, and that's reflected in his 2025 results.

In 2017, Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez teamed up to ride Always Dreaming to victory at the Kentucky Derby. A similar result isn't out of the question with Grande in 2025. While this horse presents as a top value option on the morning line, that value should dissipate as we approach the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby.
Citizen Bull (20-1)
Running out of the first gate puts Citizen Bull at a disadvantage, but we still like his chances of upsetting the field in the 151st Kentucky Derby.

With six starts under his belt, this bay colt has a sterling 4-0-1 record. At the same time, his most recent showing at the Santa Anita Derby was his most disappointing effort to date, which sets up Saturday's race as a prime bounce-back spot. Citizen Bull has posted triple-digit speed figures in nearly every race he has run.

You have to like Bob Baffert-trained horses at the Kentucky Derby. His mount, Martin Garcia, has enough experience at Churchill Downs to know what it takes to win. Citizen Bull is a must-include on all exotics, but could surprise and cash as the winner.
American Promise (30-1)
Sired by Triple Crown winner Justify and out of the Tapit progeny on his dam's side, American Promise has a winning pedigree and an ideal post position to cash in the Kentucky Derby.

Objectively, American Promise is on the rise. The chestnut colt has posted increasing speed figures ahead of the Derby and is coming off a convincing win at the Virginia Derby. Moreover, from the fifth gate, American Promise is in a prime stalking position on Saturday.

The one knock on American Promise is that his jockey, Nik Juarez, has no experience at the Kentucky Derby. Juarez cannot hang his horse out on the outside all race and expect to close late. American Promise could stun the crowd at Churchill Downs if the ride is good.
Tiztastic (20-1)
Joel Rosario mounts Tiztastic in Saturday's Run for the Roses. Another colt out of the Tapit bloodline, Tiztastic has upset potential if he isn't hung out to dry.

As seen in the G2 Louisiana Derby, Tiztastic is comfortable running from behind. The colt was second-last at the half-mile mark, closing a sizeable gap in the race's latter stages and still winning by a comfortable margin. That race was one and three-sixteenth miles long, and Tiztastic had plenty left in the tank down the stretch.

Rosario, one of the most battle-tested jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, knows how to get the most out of Tiztastic. If he makes his way to the rail early, this horse will be in the running at the wire.
Neoequos (30-1)
This colt comes with an asterisk because his mount could change ahead of post time. However, if Flavien Prat is on Neoequos, this is a longshot horse everyone should have circled in their racebooks.

Prat is one of the most successful modern jockeys at Churchill Downs. The 32-year-old has a sterling 1-1-3 record in seven Derbies, tied for the second-most top three finishes among jockeys in the race, in 19 fewer races than John Velazquez. However, Prat prefers to ride the alternate Baeza, should that colt draw into the field.

Neoequos has finished in the money in six straight races, including a third-place finish at the G1 Florida Derby. While he is better suited for sprints and likes running from the front, Prat can extract maximum value to help Neoequos come in at the bottom of exotics.
Grande (10-1)
The curse of parimutuel betting is that true value is hard to find. In that regard, we should see Grande's morning line price rise as we approach post-time.

With just three races under his belt, this Todd Pletcher-trained colt has been at his best every time he steps on the track. Sired by Preakness winner Curlin, Grande comes from Triple Crown-winning progeny, and that's reflected in his 2025 results.

In 2017, Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez teamed up to ride Always Dreaming to victory at the Kentucky Derby. A similar result isn't out of the question with Grande in 2025. While this horse presents as a top value option on the morning line, that value should dissipate as we approach the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby.
Citizen Bull (20-1)
Running out of the first gate puts Citizen Bull at a disadvantage, but we still like his chances of upsetting the field in the 151st Kentucky Derby.

With six starts under his belt, this bay colt has a sterling 4-0-1 record. At the same time, his most recent showing at the Santa Anita Derby was his most disappointing effort to date, which sets up Saturday's race as a prime bounce-back spot. Citizen Bull has posted triple-digit speed figures in nearly every race he has run.

You have to like Bob Baffert-trained horses at the Kentucky Derby. His mount, Martin Garcia, has enough experience at Churchill Downs to know what it takes to win. Citizen Bull is a must-include on all exotics, but could surprise and cash as the winner.

5 Longshot Horses to Bet at the 2025 Kentucky Derby

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