Nick Martinez and Long-Shot MVP Bets for Tampa Bay

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Game Time Decisions

Nick Martinez Emerges as a High-Risk MVP Long Shot

About 25 players are listed in the MVP market, but Nick Martinez is a notable omission. With Martinez now starting Game 1 for Tampa Bay, he could be worth considering as a long shot. The list includes deep long shots such as Johnny DeLuca, Shane Drohan and Dustin May, making Martinez’s absence stand out.

Martinez is a good pitcher, but his MVP chances depend heavily on Friday night. He likely has to win Game 1 for the ticket to remain viable. If he does, bettors would be holding an intriguing ticket. If he does not, it becomes difficult to see a path forward.

Drew Rasmussen’s chances have fallen because he is no longer pitching in Game 1. Before that news, there was a possibility he could pitch three times in a seven-game series. His odds moved to 20-to-1, but the likelihood of him making a major impact late in the series now appears minimal.

Yandy Díaz is the preferred longer shot on Tampa Bay. He is not an all-or-nothing hitter, puts the ball in play and can drive doubles from gap to gap. While home runs often win the award, Díaz consistently gets on base. Junior Caminero had a big home run, but he had not done much before that moment. William Contreras on Milwaukee and Díaz on Tampa Bay are the two preferred position players.

Jacob Misiorowski at 8-to-1 presents another concern. Starting pitchers can be frustrating MVP bets when they are removed after five innings, and Misiorowski is unlikely to pitch seven innings in any of these games. Milwaukee can turn games over to its bullpen rather than extending starters such as Anderson, Misiorowski or Freddy Peralta.

With both bullpens performing well, it is difficult to expect starting pitchers to work much beyond five innings. That makes it less likely that a pitcher wins the award in this series, even though three victories would create an obvious path.

Martinez has also generally been used for shorter outings by Tampa Bay, often around 12.5 outs, despite recently being pushed closer to five or five and a half innings. His future could also be affected by a poor upcoming pitching market. Martinez is expected to become a free agent after the season and may seek more money from another team.

The broader free-agent market also appears to lack a clear mega-contract player. Randy Arozarena is among the leading offensive options, while Sonny Gray was phenomenal this year. Even so, there does not appear to be a player comparable to the previous group of major names who commanded the largest deals.