College Football Best Bets for the CFP: College Football Playoff Expert Predictions & Picks
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
A strong finish to the regular season allowed us to finish above .500 and plus units. But just as it is for the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff, it’s a new season, which begins tonight when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the most-improved team in college football, the Indiana Hoosiers.
Four Big Ten teams, the most of any conference, have been selected to the first 12-team CFP. Oregon, the No. 1 overall seed, has a bye, while Ohio State and Penn State join IU playing in the first round, with the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions hosting games on Saturday. We’ll have plays in all three games involving Big Ten teams.
Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
Last Week: 7-1-1 (+4 UNITS) | Overall: 47-43-2 (+5.5 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 27-24-2 (+1 UNIT) | Team Totals: 19-15 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-4 (-1.5 UNITS)
CFP Predictions: SportsGrid | ATS Records
CFP Rankings: Quarterbacks
Keys to Victory: Texas | Clemson
REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): 19-23-2 (-2 UNITS)
PENN STATE -8.5 Smu (FanDuel)
Keys to Victory: Penn State | SMU
We all know about James Franklin and his inability to win against top-five teams. But he doesn’t have to slay that giant on Saturday.
Penn State is the superior team on both sides of the ball.
The Nittany Lions should have a significant edge on the line scrimmage against a mediocre SMU offensive line. The Mustangs are 78th in rushing success rate and have not faced a defensive front as explosive as PSU’s, led by dynamic edge rusher Abdul Carter (10 sacks). Jaylen Reed has been an elite playmaker from his safety position, while UGA transfer A.J. Harris headlines a deep group of proven corners.
The Mustangs have the second-most turnovers (21) among the 12 playoff teams, and eight of them came in two games against the best defenses they’ve faced, Duke and Clemson, neither of which is in Penn State’s class.
Since a fluky game against Bowling Green, the defense has allowed seven points to Illinois, 11 points to UCLA, 20 points to Ohio State, six points to Washington, and seven points to Maryland in their past five home games (10.2 PPG).
Penn State’s offense (second in offensive success rate) has been underrated all season and is improving. Drew Allar has significantly elevated his game in his second season as a starter, with his completion percentage jumping from 59.9% to 69.1 and yards per pass from 6.8 to 8.9.
They might not have a true No. 1 WR, but Harrison Wallace, Omari Evans, and Liam Clifford all average 16.4 YPC or better (75 receptions, 1,277 yards, 9 TDs combined). So, they do produce explosives. Nicholas Singleton (37-335-5 TDs) is one of the best-receiving backs in the CFP, and last but not least is Tyler Warren (88-1,062-6), arguably the best tight end in college football.
Singleton is starting to look more like the superstar everyone expected after his breakout freshman season. He has averaged 6.8 yards per carry in the past five games, including 105 yards on 10 carries against Oregon in the B1G Championship Game. Kaytron Allen also reached the century mark against the Ducks, going for 124 yards on 14 carries. This team has weapons.
Back to Franklin. Since 2020, his Nittany Lions have been favored by between seven and 17 points 15 times, and they’ve covered the spread 14 times. Over the past three seasons, PSU has been 32-1 straight up as a favorite, with 27 of those wins coming by double digits (28 by at least nine points).
Tennessee +7.5 OHIO STATE (FanDuel)
Keys to Victory: Ohio State | Tennessee
Looking at the eight/nine game, I don’t trust either quarterback or offensive line. On the flip side, this matchup might feature the two best defenses in college football.
Tennessee is ranked first in defensive success rate, second in defensive EPA, and third in points per drive, while Ohio State is second in defensive success rate, first in defensive EPA, and second in points per drive.
There is the belief that Ohio State would have cruised to a victory if it had simply thrown the ball more against the Wolverines. They won’t get duped into trying to win with bully ball on Saturday night. That’s the perception.
The reality is that the Buckeyes attempted 33 passes to 26 rushes. On those 33 passes, Will Howard averaged 5.3 yards per pass, which is worse than all 134 FBS teams averaged per pass this season. He also threw two interceptions (1 TD), which matched his turnovers against Penn State (1 INT, 1 fumble).
I’ve been asking this since the preseason: Are we sure OSU upgraded over Kyle McCord?
Ohio State’s receivers are elite, but I’m not sold that the Buckeyes win big by simply opening up the offense. I’m a little concerned as I’m reminded of how well OSU responded the last time they lost at home to Michigan when they were a missed field goal away from upsetting eventual National Champ Georgia. The difference is this team doesn’t have C.J. Stroud pulling the trigger.
This should play out as a low-scoring defensive struggle, similar to Ohio State’s 20-13 win over Penn State or their 13-10 loss in their season finale to Michigan. That’s why I’ll take the touchdown plus the hook in the Horseshoe.
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B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Season: 21-13 (+8 UNITS)
None.
B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Season: 6-5 (+1.5 UNITS)
Indiana +6.5 NOTRE DAME (FanDuel)
Keys to Victory: Notre Dame | Indiana
Count me as someone who disagrees with this line.
Looking at the metrics, these teams are pretty evenly matched: Notre Dame is third in net points/drive, third in net field position, and fourth in EPA margin, while Indiana is first in net points/drive (first!), fifth in net field position, and ninth in EPA margin.
Dig a little further, and the numbers lean toward the Hoosiers, who may be the slightly better team. The Hoosiers are first (again!) in offensive success rate (sixth rushing, first on dropbacks) and sixth in defensive success rate (third rushing, 27th on dropbacks). The Fighting Irish aren’t bad, but they aren’t as good as their instate foe, 27th in offensive success rate (27th rushing, 28th on dropbacks) and eighth in defensive success rate (64th rushing, first on dropbacks).
The narrative is Indiana ain’t beat nobody. OK. Their strength of schedule (67th) isn’t great, but neither is Notre Dame’s (61st). The strength of resumes—ND is fourth, IU is eighth—aren’t that different either.
If you’ve watched the Hoosiers play more than once or twice this season, there’s no way you haven’t been impressed. They didn’t just beat inferior opponents—they dominated teams. There’s another narrative that Indiana was exposed at Ohio State. Were they? I thought the defense more than held their own—especially against the run, and if not for a dropped punt inside the OSU five-yard line and a punt return for a touchdown (14 points), that could have been a much closer game.
IU’s offensive line was overwhelmed by the Buckeyes and had trouble with Michigan’s front, but I don’t believe Notre Dame’s defense line is nearly as good as either. I know they’re not (see above, 64th in success rate versus the run). ND’s ability to stop the run is either team’s most significant defensive weakness.
The biggest offensive weakness is the Irish on 3rd/4th downs (56th in success rate). I don’t trust Riley Leonard in third-and-passing situations, and by the way they called plays against USC, neither does the Notre Dame coaching staff. They are 95th in success rate on passing downs and 116th in percentage of completions, gaining 20+ yards.
Part of the reason I love Indiana on Friday is their edge at quarterback. Former MAC passer Kurtis Rourke had a fabulous season. He was accurate and explosive, made good decisions with the football (27 TDs-4 INTs), and handled pressure well mostly. Rourke was first in success rate against the blitz. His leading receiver, Elijah Sarratt, averaged 18.2 YPC (890 yards, 8 TDs), and No. 2 WR Omar Cooper Jr. (21.1 YPC, 571 yards, 6 TDs) was even more explosive.
Yes, the Irish’s pass defense is highly rated, but USC shredded them for 360 yards through the air (557 total yards). The Trojans were just the second offense they faced, ranked in SP+’s top 60 during their ten-game winning streak. This will be the most challenging passing attack they have faced this season.
This is a toss-up game, and an outright win by Coach Google Me wouldn’t surprise me. Which is why we’re sticking to our guns even after the line moved through seven.
B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Season: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)
None.
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