Numbers that Matter: Indiana vs.USC

It’s one of football’s oldest truths: when the final whistle sounds, the scoreboard tells you who won, but the numbers often tell you why. A team may rack up more yards and still walk away with a loss, only for the turnover margin to reveal the difference. Another may control the ball, dominate time of possession, and quietly squeeze the life out of a comeback attempt. Whether it’s field position, third-down efficiency, explosive plays, or costly mistakes, the box score often uncovers the story beneath the result. In a game decided by inches, the numbers have a way of explaining what the eye test alone cannot.

Today, we’ll preview some numbers that could ultimately make or break a game against USC that has massive Big Ten championship implications.

110

When you really simplify analytics in football, it’s funny how it can often boil down to “go for it on 4th down more often.” Just as analytics broke basketball when people realized three points were worth more than two, football became more simple when offenses started utilizing all four downs on offense more often.

That has not necessarily been the case for the Indiana offense this season. The Hoosiers currently rank 110th nationally out of 138 teams in the FBS in number of 4th down attempts (12). Whether it has been an issue of getting into 4th-and-manageable situations, a lack of trust in the quarterback, or any other number of reasons, Cignetti has opted to punt or kick field goals on fourth down a lot this season. Stats are even including the botched snap on the 4th quarter field goal against Minnesota as an attempt, so these numbers could be even less aggressive. Excluding that play, Indiana has not gone for it on 4th down since the Ohio State game.

USC has proven they can score points, so there may be instances when the Hoosiers need to utilize all four downs this weekend to retain possession and put points on the board.

17.7%

It is still yet to be known if we will see Josh Hoover or Grant Wilson starting at quarterback this weekend for the Hoosiers. What will be interesting to see, though, is if the USC defensive strategy changes at all depending on who ultimately gets the nod. The Trojan defense is around league average in most categories, though two areas stick out as below average: blitz percentage and turnover rate. USC blitzes on just 17.7% of defensive snaps, down from league average of 25.8%, per Hudl IQ. Because of this, they are middle of the pack nationally in total sacks (19.0 vs Indiana’s 32.0) and below average (104th nationally) in sack yardage (91 yards vs Indiana’s 237). This has led to just 5.4% of the Trojans defensive plays leading to a turnover versus the league average’s 9.4%, per Hudl IQ.

If Wilson gets the start, it is often thought that a way to rattle a new quarterback is by bringing more pressure. That is against the usual USC defensive strategy, however, so it is something to watch going into this matchup.

39.25

I think we all can agree that Indiana was in desperate need of a bye week last week. With injuries piling up, a potential quarterback change, and multiple overtime games in a row, it was time for a break. I took a look at how Indiana has responded after a bye week in Curt Cignetti’s tenure his first two seasons (2024 and 2025 had two bye weeks built in). This year had only 13 weeks between Labor Day and the final weekend in November, so teams were granted just one; which made this year’s all the more valuable.

In Cignetti’s first two years with the Hoosiers, Indiana averaged 39.25 points the week after their bye. I’m not sure what this weekend will bring, but with the Hoosier defense allowing just 12.4 points per game this season so far, I would gladly sign up for a 39-point outburst on offense.

Stay tuned all season long for Numbers that Matter, previewing the next week’s matchup!