NCAAF · 10 months ago

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State | College Football Picks, Best Bets

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

Ohio State plays at Penn State this Saturday with massive Big Ten Championship Game and College Football Playoff implications. The Buckeyes lost at Oregon and then squeaked by Nebraska, and one more loss would all but eliminate them from competing for a Big Ten Championship and put their College Football Playoff hopes in jeopardy. In addition, Ryan Day is just 1-7 as a head coach against top-five teams and is facing massive pressure from the OSU faithful. Penn State is still unbeaten, but James Franklin has struggled mightily against the Buckeyes and another home loss to Ohio State would heap more pressure back onto his shoulders. Drew Allar’s health is one of many significant storylines from this colossal contest.

We’ve got you covered with our favorite plays from Saturday’s showdown.

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Where to Watch Ohio State at Penn State

Location: Beaver Stadium in State College, PA
Time: Saturday, 12:00 pm ET | Where to Watch: FOX
Spread: Ohio State (-3.5) | Moneyline: OSU -160/Penn State +132 | Total: 45.5

Ohio State at Penn State Best Bet ATS: PSU (+3.5) and OVER 45.5

The total is listed at 45.5, and the SportsGrid model is projecting this game to reach nearly 49 points, placing the over as a five-star pick. Both teams have offensive question marks, but there are so many stars in the skill positions that reaching that number seems like a safe bet. The model also has a pick on a side, taking Penn State at +3.5. The Nittany Lions have a tortured history in this series, and Drew Allar will be a game-time decision. Still, Beau Pribula is an excellent fit for Andy Kotelnicki’s system, so either of them will have opportunities to make plays against the Ohio State Buckeyes. In addition, the Penn State defensive front will feast against the banged-up and vulnerable Ohio State offensive line. Penn State on the moneyline at +132 represents good value.

Check out SportsGrid’s models CFB Best Bets here.

Ohio State at Penn State Best Player Props

The SportsGrid model is full of five-star player props for this game! Let’s start with the Penn State offense and tight end Tyler Warren. Ohio State’s defense provided Nebraska’s tight end with a fruitful day, and Warren is possibly the best in the country. No matter who the quarterback is for PSU, they will lean on Warren, and the model has him exceeding his receiving total of 54.5 yards (76.3 yards). The model also has Penn State leaning on the running game and taking Kaytron Allen to go over 60.5 rushing yards (79.4 yards). The quarterback situation for PSU means you must stay away from a play on Allar or Pribula and any of the Penn State wide receivers. Switching to Ohio State, the model has Will Howard going over his 1.5 passing touchdowns number, Emeka Egbuka going way over 55.5 receiving yards (87.5 yards), and Quinshon Judkins going over 48.5 rushing yards (68.2).