Expanded College Football Playoff Makes Big Games Mean Less

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Expanded Playoff Debate and Ohio State’s Quarterback Uncertainty

An expanded College Football Playoff may give more teams an opportunity, but it could also make major regular-season results feel less significant. Auburn could knock off LSU and still have little chance of reaching the playoff. Meanwhile, a Texas loss to Florida would not necessarily eliminate Texas from a larger field, while Florida could play its way into the postseason.

That same concern applies to rivalry games such as Michigan against Ohio State, Florida against Florida State and Texas A&M against LSU. If both teams are likely to make the playoff regardless of the result, those games may not carry the same consequences they once did.

The Iron Bowl previously offered a clear example of those stakes: The winner advanced to the SEC title game with a chance to play for the national championship, while the loser’s season was effectively over. The same was true when undefeated Florida and Alabama met in a No. 1-versus-No. 2 matchup with only one national championship opportunity available. Under an expanded format, losing the SEC title game could simply mean hosting a playoff game instead.

The counterpoint is that preseason expectations do not guarantee postseason inclusion. Texas and Oregon entered the season highly regarded, but neither would necessarily make a smaller playoff. If Texas finishes 9-3 or 8-4 after losing several late-season games, the argument is that it should not have an opportunity to win the national championship. The same principle applies in basketball when teams with records such as 18-14 are debated among the last teams in or the first teams out.

Among the recent results, Indiana’s loss to Ohio State stands out. Indiana missed an opportunity to move to 7-0 and potentially become the unanimous No. 1 team in the country as the defending national champion. If Nick Marsh had stayed inbounds, and if the Hoover throw had been better, the outcome might have been different.

Despite the victory, Ohio State may have left the game in a more difficult position. Its next two games are at USC and at home against Oregon, and Julian Sayin will not be available for those matchups and possibly beyond them. Luke Fahey now steps into a completely uncertain situation as he takes over the Buckeyes’ offense.