Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction: Bet the Under 42.5

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Michigan-Indiana Betting Preview Focuses on a Low-Scoring Defensive Battle

Michigan enters its matchup against Indiana after making the move from Bryce Underwood to Tommy Carr at quarterback. Indiana is coming off a loss to Ohio State in a game that could have made the Hoosiers the No. 1-ranked team in college football.

Michigan getting 7.5 points in Ann Arbor initially looked appealing. However, backing the Wolverines against Signetti following a loss raised concerns, with an even larger number such as 10.5 feeling more comfortable.

Instead of betting the point spread, the preferred play is under 42.5 points. The approach mirrors the under bet from Indiana’s game against Ohio State, though this total is lower because Michigan is not Ohio State offensively.

Indiana allows 12.9 points per game, the best mark in the Big Ten and fourth-best in the nation. The Hoosiers held Ohio State to 19 points and 300 yards of offense, while their own offense managed just over two touchdowns and 369 yards.

Michigan ranks fourth nationally and first in the Big Ten in yards allowed while facing a more difficult schedule than Indiana. The Wolverines also allow 4.1 yards per play, the best mark in the nation, and have surrendered 20 points or fewer in all six games.

Carr looked impressive against Penn State, but Indiana presents a stronger defensive challenge. Both teams also operate at a slow pace, with Indiana averaging 60 offensive plays per game and Michigan averaging 58.

Only one Michigan game this season has produced more than 40 combined points: the matchup with UTEP. The Wolverines’ other game totals were 25 against Western Michigan, 27 against Oklahoma, 39 against Iowa, 34 against Minnesota and 39 against Penn State.

Indiana is better offensively than the other teams Michigan has faced, creating some risk for the under. If the Hoosiers reach 27 points, the total may still remain in play, but Michigan covering 7.5 points would become much less likely. The expected result is another low-scoring game, with a score such as 19-7 fitting the outlook.