Will a 24-Team College Football Playoff Reduce Blowouts?

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Expanded College Football Postseason Could Bring More Big Programs—and Fewer Mismatches

The proposed expansion of the postseason to 24 teams raised concerns about potential first-round blowouts. However, the expanded field is not expected to include more Cinderella-type teams such as New Mexico, James Madison, App State or Marshall. Based on the proposed format discussed, only the top non-Power 4 team would qualify, while the remaining spots would likely go to lower-ranked SEC and Big Ten programs.

If the postseason started today, teams around the edge of a 24-team field would include LSU, Texas, Florida, Boise State, Missouri and SMU. That suggests the additional qualifiers could be established programs, including teams comparable to a 10-2 or 9-3 Auburn or Florida, rather than several smaller programs that might create more mismatches.

There would still be some blowouts, but perhaps not as many as expected. Last season’s first-round results included Alabama beating Oklahoma 34-24, Miami defeating Texas A&M 10-3, Ole Miss beating Tulane 41-10 and Oregon defeating James Madison 51-34. Although the Alabama-Oklahoma score finished within 10 points, Alabama had held a much larger lead before Oklahoma rallied.

Those results left the impression of an underwhelming opening round. Two games were decided by wide margins, Alabama controlled much of its matchup with Oklahoma, and the closest contest was a 10-3 game. If an expanded format produces more 25- or 30-point first-round wins, it could leave fans missing the unpredictability of the previous bowl system.

Home-field advantage was also considered as a possible factor. Before the playoff, there was a belief that campus games might not provide a major advantage because students would need to buy tickets and could already be away from school. Instead, every home team except Texas A&M won.

Another explanation is the historical gap between the top four, five or six teams and the rest of college football. Last season’s matchups may simply have reflected that difference in quality. This year, however, there appears to be more balance across the sport.

That balance could strengthen the case for a 24-team field. Programs such as Texas, Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami and Oregon could potentially miss a 12-team playoff, with several major programs facing two- or three-loss seasons against difficult schedules. At the same time, teams such as Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky appear capable of challenging traditional powers.

NIL money and the ability of more programs to acquire talented players were cited as reasons for the growing number of strong teams. With greater balance across college football, an expanded postseason could feature more competitive games while giving additional major programs an opportunity to qualify.