Jaylen Warren’s Recent Production Might Remind Mike McCarthy of His Own Blueprint
Bo Marchionte
Host · Writer
McCarthy Has Always Featured One Running Back
Seventeen seasons of running-back history suggest Mike McCarthy prefers a leading man. So why did Pittsburgh open the season with a committee?
Mike McCarthy spent 17 NFL seasons demonstrating that running the football wasn’t particularly complicated.
Find your guy. Give him the ball. Let the defense figure out the rest.
Then he arrived in Pittsburgh and apparently discovered socialism.
Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle opened the season sharing carries like two kids splitting because of angry parents on the sidelines.
Neither was necessarily the wrong choice. Dowdle owns consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, while Warren had already established himself as a legitimate NFL starter.
But the arrangement was curiously unlike McCarthy.
Across 12 seasons in Green Bay and five in Dallas, McCarthy’s leading running back averaged 69.4% of the combined carries between his top two backs.
That’s not a committee.
Ryan Grant commanded 87.4% in 2008 and 87.3% in 2009. Eddie Lacy took 76.1% in 2013. Tony Pollard received 73.9% in Dallas in 2023.
And here’s the particularly amusing part.
Dowdle himself received 76.1% of Dallas’ top-two running-back carries in 2024.
Apparently, McCarthy’s philosophy got misplaced somewhere between Dallas and Pittsburgh.
Warren’s Two-Week Demolition Job
Dowdle’s absence over the last two games handed Warren an opportunity that the early-season rotation hadn’t provided.
He didn’t waste it.
Against Cincinnati, Warren carried 17 times for 127 yards. Against Cleveland, another 17 carries produced 93 yards.
That’s 220 rushing yards on 34 attempts, a healthy 6.5 yards per carry.
Add six receptions for 82 yards and Warren has delivered 302 yards from scrimmage in two weeks.
Hammer time.
Does that prove Warren is better than Dowdle? Absolutely not. Give Dowdle 34 carries and perhaps we’re writing the same story about him.
But Warren has done something no amount of backfield theorizing can dispute.
He’s made the most of his opportunity.
And he’s made the original 50/50 arrangement look increasingly peculiar.
The Colts Are Coming. Apparently.
When I asked McCarthy was asked whether Warren’s production might influence the workload when Dowdle returns.
His response was a small masterpiece of NFL diplomacy.
“I mean, I think the biggest thing is, you know, we’re getting ready to play the Colts, and obviously Jaylen’s a big part of that game plan."
Terrific. The Colts are next. Glad we cleared that up.
McCarthy continued.
“Not really sure where Rico is as far as coming back, but yeah, to sit here and talk about snaps, you know, a week or two weeks down the line, I really don’t have an answer for you."
Fair enough. Nobody expects him to announce next month’s carry distribution like quarterly earnings.
But the question wasn’t particularly complicated.
Has Warren earned a larger role?
McCarthy’s own coaching history suggests he understands the value of feeding a productive running back. His current running back has spent two weeks providing a rather persuasive reminder.
Dowdle deserves consideration when healthy. Warren deserves consideration right now.
The Steelers don’t need a permanent declaration or a public demotion.
They need to recognize what’s working.
McCarthy spent 17 seasons knowing when to ride the hot hand. Warren just spent two weeks reminding him where to find it.
Mike McCarthy’s No. 1 vs. No. 2 Running Backs
Here’s the 17-season comparison, using regular-season rushing attempts. The percentage is the leading back’s share of carries between the top two running backs, excluding quarterbacks.
Green Bay Packers (2006–2017)
| Year | No. 1 RB (carries) | No. 2 RB (carries) | No. 1 share |
| · 2006 | · Ahman Green (266) | · Vernand Morency (91) | · 74.5% |
| · 2007 | · Ryan Grant (188) | · Brandon Jackson (75) | · 71.5% |
| · 2008 | · Ryan Grant (312) | · Brandon Jackson (45) | · 87.4% |
| · 2009 | · Ryan Grant (282) | · Ahman Green (41) | · 87.3% |
| · 2010 | · Brandon Jackson (190) | · John Kuhn (84) | · 69.3% |
| · 2011 | · Ryan Grant (134) | · James Starks (133) | · 50.2% |
| · 2012 | · Alex Green (135) | · Cedric Benson (71)* | · 65.5% |
| · 2013 | · Eddie Lacy (284) | · James Starks (89) | · 76.1% |
| · 2014 | · Eddie Lacy (246) | · James Starks (85) | · 74.3% |
| · 2015 | · Eddie Lacy (187) | · James Starks (148) | · 55.8% |
| · 2016 | · Ty Montgomery (77) | · Eddie Lacy (71) | · 52.0% |
| · 2017 | · Jamaal Williams (153) | · Aaron Jones (81) | · 65.4% |
Dallas Cowboys (2020–2024)
| Year | No. 1 RB (carries) | No. 2 RB (carries) | No. 1 share |
| · 2020 | · Ezekiel Elliott (244) | · Tony Pollard (101) | · 70.7% |
| · 2021 | · Ezekiel Elliott (237) | · Tony Pollard (130) | · 64.6% |
| · 2022 | · Ezekiel Elliott (231) | · Tony Pollard (193) | · 54.5% |
| · 2023 | · Tony Pollard (252) | · Rico Dowdle (89) | · 73.9% |
| · 2024 | · Rico Dowdle (235) | · Ezekiel Elliott (74) | · 76.1% |
