NFL · 1 year ago

NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Picking a Player Prop for Every Game

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Saints @ Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)
If we're being honest with ourselves, this Chiefs offense has looked pedestrian at best through the month of September. They have eked out all four of their wins by leaning on a strong defense and have looked largely lost on the offensive side of the ball for most of their games. Now without their top receiver in Rashee Rice, we're going to bet on that trend continuing against a solid Saints defense and fade Patrick Mahomes's passing yards, a number he has fallen short of twice so far this year.
Jets @ Vikings: Aaron Rodgers Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Aaron Rodgers is a hell of a quarterback, but this Minnesota defense has stifled every signal-caller in their path to start the season. Jordan Love and Brock Purdy were only able to get there in those meetings due to game script, and we expect this to be a tighter contest. Rodgers doesn't quite seem to be on the same page of his new pass-catchers, so we'll fade him here.
Panthers @ Bears: Roschon Johnson Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
We know D'Andre Swift can feel Roschon Johnson breathing down his neck at this point, and it's only a matter of time until he is getting the bulk of the workload. Swift had a solid Week 4 performance, but Johnson has proven to be the better rusher of the two. If Chicago gets out to a lead at home, expect a healthy dose of Johnson for the second half.
Ravens @ Bengals: Tee Higgins Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The further Tee Higgins gets from his hamstring injury, the more bullish we are becoming on his week-to-week prospects. With all of the attention that Ja'Marr Chase continues to get as the focal point of the passing game, it's always helped Higgins find a spike week every once in a while throughout the season. We'll call our shot here and say he finds it against the Ravens on Sunday.
Bills @ Texans: Dalton Kincaid Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
It was promising to see Dalton Kincaid put up season-highs in receptions and receiving yards in the Week 4 loss to the Ravens. He seems to be slowly working towards the volume and production we expected in the preseason. With Khalil Shakir absent due to injury, Allen is going to seek receivers that he can trust and has some continuity with. Expect Kincaid to get enough looks in the passing game to pass this number.
Colts @ Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Colts have not faced a legitimate passing quarterback since Week 1 when C.J. Stroud lit them up by completing 75 percent of his passes for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Games against Malik Willis, Caleb Williams, and Justin Fields aren't exactly going to challenge your secondary, but we expect Trevor Lawrence to at least keep them honest. We'll back him to beat this number in a game the Jags simply must have.
Dolphins @ Patriots: Tyreek Hill Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
This may be the only time we ever see Tyreek Hill at this low of a receiving yards total in his career. It's unfathomable how much worse the Dolphins look without Tua Tagovailoa under center, but it's turned them into perhaps the worst offense in the NFL. That being said, we will buy the dip here. All it takes is one play for Hill to find his way over this number and for you to cash this ticket.
Browns @ Commanders: Jayden Daniels Under 203.5 Passing Yards (-113)
This game may be Jayden Daniels's "Welcome to the league, rook" induction to the NFL. He has faced some porous defensive units over the first four weeks of the season, and he has seen nothing like what Cleveland has to offer on that side of the ball. He is one of the most exciting talents at the position already, but we will fade him and expect to see some rookie mistakes in the passing game.
Raiders @ Broncos: Tre Tucker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Someone has to catch the football! With Davante Adams officially ruled out due to a "hamstring" injury, Jakobi Meyers slides into the WR1 role and will undoubtedly see more targets in the passing game. He felt like a solid option to thrive in this passing game, but Patrick Surtain has been a buzzsaw to WR1s all season long. Let's rock with second-year pass-catcher Tre Tucker, who has been quietly having a really strong season out in Vegas.
Cardinals @ 49ers: Brock Purdy Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-113)
After seeing what Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels have been able to do against this leaky Cardinals defense, we're willing to back one of the most reliable quarterbacks and offenses in the NFL to thrive on Sunday. Brock Purdy has been an incredible point guard for the 49ers since stepping into the starting role and will get a solid boost with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle another week healthier.
Packers @ Rams: Josh Jacobs Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Opposing defense and game script both play into this pick. The Rams have allowed the most rushing yards out of any defense in the NFL through the first four weeks, and we could see this game get away from the Rams in the second half if they fail to keep up with Green Bay's explosive offense. That would mean more rushes for Josh Jacobs and more opportunities for him to get over this number. Back the Packers' workhorse back to see some success on Sunday.
Giants @ Seahawks: Wan'Dale Robinson Over 6.5 Receptions (-102)
Malik Nabers is set to miss some time due to a concussion, which leaves Wan'Dale Robinson as the lone noteworthy receiver in the offense for the Giants. It puts them in a difficult situation, but this Seattle secondary showed that it may be one of the worst in the league after Jared Goff went a perfect 18-for-18 against them on Monday Night Football. It means Daniel Jones and Robinson could be in for some pitch-and-catch in this one, so we'll back Robinson's receptions total.
Cowboys @ Steelers: Rico Dowdle Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
This may be the week when the needle starts to point toward Rico Dowdle as the starting running back for the Cowboys. He has seen approximately half of the offensive snaps over the first four weeks, while Ezekiel Elliott has been phased out more and more each week. We want to be ahead of the market on the week Dowdle ends up getting the bulk of the work, so we'll take a stab at this Sunday night being the turn of the worm.
Saints @ Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)
If we're being honest with ourselves, this Chiefs offense has looked pedestrian at best through the month of September. They have eked out all four of their wins by leaning on a strong defense and have looked largely lost on the offensive side of the ball for most of their games. Now without their top receiver in Rashee Rice, we're going to bet on that trend continuing against a solid Saints defense and fade Patrick Mahomes's passing yards, a number he has fallen short of twice so far this year.
Jets @ Vikings: Aaron Rodgers Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Aaron Rodgers is a hell of a quarterback, but this Minnesota defense has stifled every signal-caller in their path to start the season. Jordan Love and Brock Purdy were only able to get there in those meetings due to game script, and we expect this to be a tighter contest. Rodgers doesn't quite seem to be on the same page of his new pass-catchers, so we'll fade him here.

NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Picking a Player Prop for Every Game

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