Patriots vs. Bears: Playoff Stakes & Betting Trends

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Game Time Decisions

Patriots-Bears Matchup Carries Playoff and Betting Implications

Every NFL game is important, but Chicago may have slightly more on the line in this matchup. A Patriots win would move New England to 5-2, a half-game behind the idle Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. New England has already beaten Buffalo on the road and will face the Bills again at home.

A loss would drop the Patriots to 4-3 and leave them two games behind Buffalo in the loss column. That would not end New England’s season, especially with games remaining against the Dolphins and Jets, along with tougher matchups against Kansas City and Minnesota. The Patriots could also potentially beat the Chargers.

New England appears likely to reach the playoffs, although its positioning may differ from last season. The Patriots could finish behind Buffalo and play on Wild Card Weekend, but another victory over the Bills could change that outlook.

There are still doubts about New England’s ability to return to the Super Bowl if it must face a capable quarterback such as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Even so, the Patriots deserve credit for continuing to play well after their Super Bowl loss to Seattle. Teams coming off that kind of defeat do not always respond with another strong season.

Nobody should be surprised if New England goes into Chicago, plays improved defense and beats the Bears. The Patriots still have offensive weapons, AJ Brown is another week healthier, May appears to be improving, and Vrabel has Henderson and Stevenson rotating effectively at running back. It makes tonight’s matchup a true coin flip.

The betting trends favor New England, particularly early in games. The Patriots are 21-6 straight up over their last 27 games and 17-8 against the spread. Many of those results came last season against inferior competition, but the numbers remain notable.

New England is 6-0 against the spread in first quarters this season and is getting 1.5 points in the opening quarter at minus 140. The Patriots are also 23-4 against the spread in first-half lines over their last 27 games, with 1.5 points available and no additional juice.

Those trends suggest that the Patriots consistently arrive ready to play. Chicago could eventually wear New England down and win at home, but betting against the Patriots in the first quarter or first half would be difficult. Sometimes the best bet is the one not made.

The trends also reflect Chicago’s recent pattern. The Bears have built leads before allowing opponents back into games, including against Tampa and Atlanta. That creates the possibility of Chicago leading early before New England responds.

There was considerable offseason optimism surrounding Ben Johnson and the Bears’ offense, and Chicago reinforced that belief by scoring 59 points. Teams may occasionally score 40 before returning to poor offensive form, but putting up 59 suggested that the Bears could make a significant jump even if they did not average 30 points per game.

Chicago later regressed somewhat, and Caleb Williams was injured. With Williams now announced as an NFL player of the week, however, the Bears’ offense appears to be improving. This matchup against Vrabel and the New England defense will provide a major test, particularly if Chicago takes a first-half lead and must protect it after halftime.