Grant White

The second round of the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl">Stanley Cup Playoffs</a> is heating up, and Tuesday’s slate brings us a pivotal Central Division showdown between the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl">Dallas Stars</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl/depth-chart/winnipeg-jets-depth-chart">Winnipeg Jets</a>. With the Stars holding a 2-1 series lead, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Game 4, and there’s actionable betting value on both the side and player prop markets.
Below, we break down two of the night’s best plays, backed by key metrics, matchup context, and playoff trends.
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<h2 data-start="308" data-end="681">Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Game Pick</h2>
After splitting the opening pair of games on the road, the Dallas Stars returned home and overwhelmed the Jets in Game 3, delivering a statement win. Now up 2-1 in the series, Dallas is in position to tighten its grip on the matchup and push Winnipeg to the brink.
The Stars have had a stranglehold on the series from an analytics standpoint. They’ve dominated all three games in terms of puck control and shot quality, boasting a 62.0% expected goals-for (xGF) rating across the series. Dallas is also generating a notable 11.3 high-danger chances per game, comfortably ahead of Winnipeg’s 8.0 average.
Goaltending has been a glaring weak spot for Winnipeg. <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl/players/connor-hellebuyck/4007">Connor Hellebuyck</a>, the ordinarily reliable netminder, has struggled immensely this postseason. In 10 playoff starts, he’s posted a save percentage above 89.7% just twice, and his current playoff average sits at an alarmingly low 84.8%.
The gap in performance is clear — Dallas is controlling the run of play, and the Jets can’t rely on Hellebuyck to bail them out. At this price, there’s solid value backing the Stars to secure a Game 4 win and take command of the series.
Best Bet: Stars Moneyline (-150) 
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl/game/winnipeg-jets-dallas-stars-scores-odds-picks-props-may-13-2025/406f1c0c-8b36-4aaa-9816-193d08156875">WPG at DAL Odds &amp; Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today &amp; Injury Updates</a>
<h2 data-start="308" data-end="681">Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Prop Pick</h2>
While Dallas has leaned on its top line to do the heavy lifting offensively, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl/players/tyler-seguin/3446">Tyler Seguin</a> remains a high-upside contributor flying under the radar. His current point total sits at just 0.5 for Game 4, and the over offers strong value at plus money.
Seguin’s underlying numbers suggest he’s overdue for a bigger offensive impact. His expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) sits at 61.7%, with a total of 9.7 expected goals-for this postseason. In contrast, his actual goals-for sits at just 6.0, pointing to some untapped scoring upside.
He’s also averaging 7.4 scoring chances and 3.3 high-danger opportunities per game, further supporting his potential to register a point.
Despite being used in a defensive role occasionally, Seguin’s well-rounded game and playoff experience keep him in high-leverage situations. With Dallas expected to dictate the pace again, he’s a strong candidate to contribute offensively. The numbers — and the price — both back a play on the over.
Top Prop: Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 Points (+116)
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Odds Subject to Change. Check Here for the Most <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nhl/picks">Up-to-date NHL Odds</a>
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2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Jets vs Stars Game 4 Best Bets

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Tuesday's NHL Best Bets feature Stars moneyline vs. Jets and Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 Points, backed by playoff analytics, xGF edge, and goaltending trends.

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