Arsenal’s 2026 Champions League Win Probability

Tournament: On 5 May Bukayo Saka struck just before half-time to clinch a 1-0 second-leg win over Atlético Madrid, sealing a 2-1 aggregate semi-final. The Gunners now eye the 30 May final versus PSG at Puskás Aréna.

Recent Form: Domestic momentum is positive—Fulham were brushed aside 3-0 on 2 May, then West Ham fell 1-0 away on 10 May. Six points keep Arsenal top of the Premier League with 79 points and a growing cushion.

Squad & Catalysts: Ben White’s knee injury rules him out until early June, while Jurriën Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are both listed doubtful. Mikel Merino has rejoined training after a foot issue, but midfield minutes may still stay with Rice and Ødegaard.

Market Sentiment: Arsenal’s asset price spiked after the semi-final clearance, with traders adding positions ahead of the final. Expect heightened volatility as injury bulletins and PSG line-up signals hit the order book.

Outlook: With confidence rising and only minor defensive doubts, Arsenal carry bullish momentum into Budapest and look to hold a narrow edge in the race for continental glory.