NCAAB · 1 year ago

4 Teams Who Are Sleepers to Earn a No. 1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

4. Tennessee Volunteers
The case for the Tennessee Volunteers looked better before this weekend’s disappointing loss to Texas A&M, but the Vols still have a path to securing a No. 1 seed. Tennessee is 17-6 with a 7-3 record in the rugged SEC, and they close the season with crucial opportunities against Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Tennessee has strong metrics and is seventh in KenPom (as of February 12, 2024) and 6^th in the NET. The big negative for the Vols is their three losses to other top-end teams: Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Those came earlier in the season but still count just the same. Tennessee’s path is narrow but wins to close the campaign against quad-one opponents and a robust SEC Tournament could swing them into the top line.

Tennessee NCAA Championship Odds: +1400
4 Sleepers That Could Steal a #1 Seed
With Selection Sunday roughly one month away, the race for the No. 1 seeds is on. Four favorites have set themselves apart for those spots, but only two would be considered near locks: Purdue and Connecticut. The Boilermakers and Huskies are the top two teams in the country, and their cases for a number one seed are well-established. The other two spots would likely go to Houston and Arizona, but there is much work left to be done and four sleeper teams that could grab one of those top seeds.
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is currently 19-5 and sits alone at the top of the ACC. A home loss to Clemson last week damages the case for a No. 1 seed. Still, the Tar Heels have trips to Virginia and Duke that would provide additional quad-one wins, and if they win the ACC regular season title and the conference tournament, they become a threat to end on the top line. UNC already has six quad-one wins and is eighth in KenPom (as of February 12, 2024). If the Tar Heels can roll in the next month and get some help, they are likely a one-seed.

UNC Odds to Win Title: +1200
2. Kansas Jayhawks
A team from the Big 12 will likely end up on the one-line. The Big 12 is stacked and deep, and the Kansas Jayhawks are waiting to snag the top spot from Houston. The Cougars currently lead the league by one game, but Kansas has a comfortable head-to-head win over Houston, and the two will clash on March 9 to close the regular season. If the Jayhawks beat Houston twice in the regular season, they’ll have a terrific resume. Kansas already has six quad-one wins and no horrific losses. With games coming up against Oklahoma, BYU, and Baylor, and the trip to Houston, there are plenty of opportunities to grab more high-quality victories.

Kansas’ Odds to Win Title: +1800
3. Marquette Golden Eagles
The Marquette Golden Eagles might be a surprise inclusion to some, but Shaka Smart’s squad is red-hot right now and trailing only UConn in the Big East. They have a strong resume already, with five quad-one wins and no bad losses, but the best case for a potential No. 1 seed is the upcoming schedule and the opportunity it represents. Marquette has road games at Butler and Creighton, plus two contests (home and away) against number one Connecticut. If the Golden Eagles can grab three of those four games, they will be right on the cut line for one of the top seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Marquette NCAA Championship Odds: +2500
4. Tennessee Volunteers
The case for the Tennessee Volunteers looked better before this weekend’s disappointing loss to Texas A&M, but the Vols still have a path to securing a No. 1 seed. Tennessee is 17-6 with a 7-3 record in the rugged SEC, and they close the season with crucial opportunities against Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Tennessee has strong metrics and is seventh in KenPom (as of February 12, 2024) and 6^th in the NET. The big negative for the Vols is their three losses to other top-end teams: Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Those came earlier in the season but still count just the same. Tennessee’s path is narrow but wins to close the campaign against quad-one opponents and a robust SEC Tournament could swing them into the top line.

Tennessee NCAA Championship Odds: +1400
4 Sleepers That Could Steal a #1 Seed
With Selection Sunday roughly one month away, the race for the No. 1 seeds is on. Four favorites have set themselves apart for those spots, but only two would be considered near locks: Purdue and Connecticut. The Boilermakers and Huskies are the top two teams in the country, and their cases for a number one seed are well-established. The other two spots would likely go to Houston and Arizona, but there is much work left to be done and four sleeper teams that could grab one of those top seeds.