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MLB · 3 weeks ago

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

Sportsgrid-Staff

Mets @ Reds – First Pitch: 6:40 p.m.

Expected Forecast: Few Clouds, 69°
 

When it comes to betting on this game, there are a few key factors to consider. Firstly, Justin Verlander’s performance in his first game of the season is not an accurate reflection of his potential. He’s a seasoned pitcher with a proven track record, and it’s not unusual for a player to have a rough start after a long absence. 

On the other side, Hunter Greene has been impressive early on, particularly against left-handed batters. However, his .393 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) against right-handed batters suggests that he could struggle against a Mets lineup that features some potent right-handed hitters. Also, Greene’s xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.21 suggests that he might be due for some regression.

The Great American Ballpark, known for its hitter-friendly confines, and the warmer weather conditions will likely favor offensive output. Therefore, the over seems like a solid bet, given both teams’ offensive potential and the pitching match-up. However, if you’re confident that Verlander can bounce back, the Mets at -154 could offer value.

In terms of player props, consider taking a look at the Mets’ right-handed hitters against Greene. Pete Alonso, for example, has a career wOBA of .371 against right-handed pitchers and could be a worthwhile bet for an anytime home run.

Ultimately, this game could come down to which team can capitalize on their opportunities. The Mets desperately need a strong start from Verlander, but the Reds have a young flamethrower in Greene who could throw a wrench in their plans. Either way, this matchup promises to be an exciting one for both baseball and betting enthusiasts.

Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:

  Spread Total Moneyline  
 Mets -1.5  -109  O 9  -103  -173  Open
+103  -115  -154  Current
 Reds +1.5   -111  U 9  -117  +147  Open
 -123   -105  +132  Current

Projected Lineups:

Mets

Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander: 0-1, 3.60 ERA, 9.00 K/9

1. CF  Brandon Nimmo   .300, 3 HR, 14 RBI
2. SS  Francisco Lindor   .224, 6 HR, 27 RBI
3. LF  Jeff McNeil   .280, 2 HR, 12 RBI
4. 1B  Pete Alonso   .237, 12 HR, 30 RBI
5. 3B  Brett Baty   .271, 2 HR, 6 RBI
6. RF  Starling Marte   .223, 1 HR, 8 RBI
7. DH  Daniel Vogelbach   .257, 2 HR, 13 RBI
8. 2B  Luis Guillorme   .231, 0 HR, 3 RBI
9. C  Francisco Alvarez   .241, 3 HR, 6 RBI

Reds

Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene: 0-2, 3.74 ERA, 12.56 K/9

1. 2B  Jonathan India   .307, 3 HR, 17 RBI
2. CF  TJ Friedl   .325, 3 HR, 18 RBI
3. 1B  Spencer Steer   .252, 4 HR, 12 RBI
4. LF  Jake Fraley   .236, 2 HR, 18 RBI
5. C  Tyler Stephenson   .254, 1 HR, 13 RBI
6. 3B  Nick Senzel   .268, 3 HR, 14 RBI
7. RF  Wil Myers   .215, 3 HR, 10 RBI
8. DH  Henry Ramos   .250, 0 HR, 3 RBI
9. SS  Jose Barrero   .226, 1 HR, 11 RBI

Betting Insights:

Mets

  • The New York Mets are 0-5 (.000) on the road as a favorite in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 3 of the New York Mets last 5 games on the road in 2023

Reds

  • The Cincinnati Reds are 4-1 (.800) at home as an underdog in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 3 of the Cincinnati Reds last 5 games at home in 2023

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