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MLB · 4 months ago

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview



New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview

Mets @ Reds – First Pitch: 6:40 p.m.

Expected Forecast: Few Clouds, 69°

When it comes to betting on this game, there are a few key factors to consider. Firstly, Justin Verlander’s performance in his first game of the season is not an accurate reflection of his potential. He’s a seasoned pitcher with a proven track record, and it’s not unusual for a player to have a rough start after a long absence. 

On the other side, Hunter Greene has been impressive early on, particularly against left-handed batters. However, his .393 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) against right-handed batters suggests that he could struggle against a Mets lineup that features some potent right-handed hitters. Also, Greene’s xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.21 suggests that he might be due for some regression.

The Great American Ballpark, known for its hitter-friendly confines, and the warmer weather conditions will likely favor offensive output. Therefore, the over seems like a solid bet, given both teams’ offensive potential and the pitching match-up. However, if you’re confident that Verlander can bounce back, the Mets at -154 could offer value.

In terms of player props, consider taking a look at the Mets’ right-handed hitters against Greene. Pete Alonso, for example, has a career wOBA of .371 against right-handed pitchers and could be a worthwhile bet for an anytime home run.

Ultimately, this game could come down to which team can capitalize on their opportunities. The Mets desperately need a strong start from Verlander, but the Reds have a young flamethrower in Greene who could throw a wrench in their plans. Either way, this matchup promises to be an exciting one for both baseball and betting enthusiasts.

Spread, Total, Moneyline, and Odds:

  Spread Total Moneyline  
 Mets -1.5  -109  O 9  -103  -173  Open
+103  -115  -154  Current
 Reds +1.5   -111  U 9  -117  +147  Open
 -123   -105  +132  Current

Projected Lineups:


Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander: 0-1, 3.60 ERA, 9.00 K/9

1. CF  Brandon Nimmo   .300, 3 HR, 14 RBI
2. SS  Francisco Lindor   .224, 6 HR, 27 RBI
3. LF  Jeff McNeil   .280, 2 HR, 12 RBI
4. 1B  Pete Alonso   .237, 12 HR, 30 RBI
5. 3B  Brett Baty   .271, 2 HR, 6 RBI
6. RF  Starling Marte   .223, 1 HR, 8 RBI
7. DH  Daniel Vogelbach   .257, 2 HR, 13 RBI
8. 2B  Luis Guillorme   .231, 0 HR, 3 RBI
9. C  Francisco Alvarez   .241, 3 HR, 6 RBI


Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene: 0-2, 3.74 ERA, 12.56 K/9

1. 2B  Jonathan India   .307, 3 HR, 17 RBI
2. CF  TJ Friedl   .325, 3 HR, 18 RBI
3. 1B  Spencer Steer   .252, 4 HR, 12 RBI
4. LF  Jake Fraley   .236, 2 HR, 18 RBI
5. C  Tyler Stephenson   .254, 1 HR, 13 RBI
6. 3B  Nick Senzel   .268, 3 HR, 14 RBI
7. RF  Wil Myers   .215, 3 HR, 10 RBI
8. DH  Henry Ramos   .250, 0 HR, 3 RBI
9. SS  Jose Barrero   .226, 1 HR, 11 RBI

Betting Insights:


  • The New York Mets are 0-5 (.000) on the road as a favorite in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 3 of the New York Mets last 5 games on the road in 2023


  • The Cincinnati Reds are 4-1 (.800) at home as an underdog in their last five games in 2023
  • The over hit in 3 of the Cincinnati Reds last 5 games at home in 2023