College Baseball · 4 months ago

D1Baseball Super Regional: Murray State vs Duke Series Preview

SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

Host · Writer

Prediction – Who Punches the Ticket to Omaha?
Duke has the better pedigree, the more complete lineup, and the advantage of playing at home. But if we’ve learned anything from this tournament, it’s that Murray State thrives on chaos. They’re relentless, fearless, and riding serious momentum.

This one feels destined for three games. In the end, Duke’s depth and power bats should give them the edge, but don’t count the Racers out until the final out.

Prediction: Duke in 3.

Series Odds: Duke -390 | Murray State +290

*All Odds Subject to Change. Courtesy Bet365
Series Overview – Duke Blue Devils vs. Murray State Racers
Nobody saw this Super Regional coming. Duke and Murray State weren't favorites in their respective regionals, yet here they are—one series away from Omaha. The Duke Blue Devils weathered early-season struggles and silenced doubters with a resilient run through the Athens Regional. Meanwhile, the Murray State Racers authored the most shocking upset of the tournament, knocking off No. 1 seed Ole Miss en route to their first-ever Super Regional.

Both squads thrive on chemistry, grit, and timely hitting. This series has the makings of a three-game grind, where momentum swings and bullpen execution will be everything.

Duke Blue Devils

Overall: 40-19

Conference: 17-13

RPI: 30

SOS: 34

Murray State

Overall: 42-14

Conference: 17-8

RPI: 67

SOS: 222

Thanks to Just Baseball for the stats, analysis and insights for this slideshow article.
Where to Watch Murray State vs Duke
Location: Durham, North Carolina
Matchup: Duke vs. Murray State

Game 1: Saturday, June 7 – 1 p.m. ET | ESPNU

Game 2: Sunday, June 8 – Noon ET | TBA

Game 3 (If Necessary): Monday, June 9 – TBD

The matchup pits an emerging Blue Devil power program against the ultimate Cinderella story in Murray State. Expect packed crowds and high stakes in Durham.

Game 1 Odds

ML: Murray State +320 | Duke -450

RL: Murray State +2.5 (+100) | Duke -2.5 (-130)

Total: O 12.5 (-125) U 12.5 (-105)

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Duke Blue Devils – Grit, Power & Patience at the Plate
Duke has made a habit of proving people wrong. Their calling card is grit, but this team also brings power, ranking 14th nationally in home runs. Ben Miller (20 HR), AJ Gracia (13 HR), Jake Hyde (11 HR), and Tyler Albright (10 HR) bring thunder to a lineup that also leads the nation in walk rate.

The issue? Pitching. Duke has a team ERA of 4.83, and ace Kyle Johnson has struggled with a 6.34 ERA. Still, they’ve shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks, and if their arms hold, their bats could be enough to carry them to Omaha.

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Murray State Racers – Scrappy, Balanced, and Dangerous
Murray State isn't just a feel-good story—they’re a complete team. Offensively, they rank top-50 nationally in virtually every major metric, including top-20 in runs scored, OBP, and wRC+. Dustin Mercer (.350+) and Dom Decker (.346) set the table, while Jonathan Hogart (19 HR), Carson Garner (16 HR), Will Vierling, and Dan Tauken provide the pop.

Their pitching is less dominant—44th in ERA, but lacking strikeout upside. Still, they find ways to escape jams and win high-leverage battles. Don’t sleep on the Racers. Duke won’t be.
Regional Recap – Duke Survives, Murray State Thrives
Duke battled back from a 2-0 deficit to stun Oklahoma State 3-2 in the Athens final, powered by AJ Gracia's late solo shot and a clutch 114 mph two-run single from Sam Harris. Gabe Nard and Reid Easterly shut it down from the bullpen, while Wallace Clark earned All-Tournament honors.

Murray State, meanwhile, tore through the Oxford Regional. They stunned Ole Miss 9–6, beat Georgia Tech 13–11, and regrouped despite a Game 6 loss to win the decider and make history. Jonathan Hogart, Dustin Mercer, and a relentless offense carried the day.
MLB Draft Watch – Future Stars on Both Sides
Duke Blue Devils

LHP James Tallon: Armed with a mid-90s fastball and plus secondaries, Tallon projects as a pro bullpen weapon despite a 4.46 ERA.

OF AJ Gracia: A 2026 MLB Draft riser with 28 career homers and elite plate discipline. Gracia’s lefty bat and all-fields power make him a name to know.

Murray State Racers

Jonathan Hogart: The slugging outfielder leads with 19 HRs and a huge bat-speed profile.

Dustin Mercer: A contact-first spark plug hitting over .350 with game-breaking speed and approach.
Prediction – Who Punches the Ticket to Omaha?
Duke has the better pedigree, the more complete lineup, and the advantage of playing at home. But if we’ve learned anything from this tournament, it’s that Murray State thrives on chaos. They’re relentless, fearless, and riding serious momentum.

This one feels destined for three games. In the end, Duke’s depth and power bats should give them the edge, but don’t count the Racers out until the final out.

Prediction: Duke in 3.

Series Odds: Duke -390 | Murray State +290

*All Odds Subject to Change. Courtesy Bet365
Series Overview – Duke Blue Devils vs. Murray State Racers
Nobody saw this Super Regional coming. Duke and Murray State weren't favorites in their respective regionals, yet here they are—one series away from Omaha. The Duke Blue Devils weathered early-season struggles and silenced doubters with a resilient run through the Athens Regional. Meanwhile, the Murray State Racers authored the most shocking upset of the tournament, knocking off No. 1 seed Ole Miss en route to their first-ever Super Regional.

Both squads thrive on chemistry, grit, and timely hitting. This series has the makings of a three-game grind, where momentum swings and bullpen execution will be everything.

Duke Blue Devils

Overall: 40-19

Conference: 17-13

RPI: 30

SOS: 34

Murray State

Overall: 42-14

Conference: 17-8

RPI: 67

SOS: 222

Thanks to Just Baseball for the stats, analysis and insights for this slideshow article.

D1Baseball Super Regional: Murray State vs Duke Series Preview

Duke Blue Devils

Murray State

Duke Blue Devils

Murray State

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