Prediction Markets: Will Elon Musk Remain the Richest Person in the World?

Elon Musk Prediction Market Surges After Brief Loss of Richest Title

Prediction markets are buzzing after Elon Musk briefly lost—and then regained—his title as the world’s richest person this week. On Polymarket through the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the contract “Elon no longer world’s richest before 2026?” jumped higher than a 90% chance before moving back to a 66% chance. The quick movement reflects traders’ belief that Musk’s grip on the No. 1 spot may be shaky heading into 2026.

But what caused the massive swing?

Oracle’s AI Boom Fuels Larry Ellison’s Surge

The shift came after Oracle’s blockbuster earnings report sent its stock soaring nearly 36% in one day—its biggest jump since 1992. Larry Ellison, Oracle’s cofounder and largest shareholder, saw his net worth spike by as much as $101 billion before closing with an $89 billion gain. That briefly lifted him past Musk on Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, making him the richest person in the world for a few hours.

Ellison’s wealth closed at $383.2 billion, just short of Musk’s $384.2 billion. Analysts described Oracle’s $455 billion AI service backlog as “staggering,” cementing Ellison’s role as a major player in the AI infrastructure boom.

Elon Musk’s Position Under Pressure

While Oracle stock is soaring, Musk faces headwinds. Tesla shares are down 14% this year, chipping away at his net worth. Although Musk has regained the No. 1 spot, prediction markets show doubts about whether he can hold onto it.

The Polymarket contract will resolve to “Yes” if Musk is ranked anywhere below No. 1 on Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index at any point before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. With AI-driven growth propelling Oracle, Microsoft, and Nvidia, Musk’s lead is vulnerable to sudden swings in tech valuations.

Why Traders Are Paying Attention

Prediction markets act like real-time barometers of investor sentiment. The surge in the “Musk dethroned” contract reflects growing confidence that volatility in both Tesla and the AI sector could shuffle the top of the billionaire rankings again before year’s end.

With Musk, Ellison, and other tech titans at the center of the AI boom, this market has become one of the most closely watched on Polymarket—where wealth, technology, and speculation collide.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are trading platforms where people buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events. Each contract’s price reflects the market’s consensus on the probability of that event happening—for example, whether a candidate will win an election, a company will hit earnings targets, or a team will win a championship. When the event resolves, winning contracts pay out in full, while losing ones expire worthless. By aggregating information from thousands of traders, prediction markets often serve as real-time indicators of public expectations, sometimes proving more accurate than polls or expert forecasts.

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