The 2025 Open Championship: 1st Round Leader Betting Trends

As the 2025 Open Championship tees off, one of the most exciting betting markets to watch is the First Round Leader. With links-style golf known for its unpredictability and ever-changing conditions, early-round scoring can swing wildly — offering bettors unique opportunities to cash in before the weekend even begins.

This year’s market is shaping up with some familiar names attracting attention, but also a few dark horses who’ve quietly built strong opening-round résumés. Thanks to BetMGM’s latest insights, here’s a look at who’s drawing the most early interest — and which players sportsbooks will be sweating when the first 18 are in the books.

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Highest Ticket %: Public Leaning Toward Early-Round Specialists

• Nick Taylor – 5.3%
• Justin Rose – 4.2%
• Daniel Berger – 3.8%

Nick Taylor’s consistency and hot starts have earned him the public’s trust. With seven opening rounds of 67 or better this season and a win at the Sony Open, it’s no surprise he leads in ticket percentage. Taylor has made 16 cuts in 19 events and has 11 top-25 finishes — bettors see him as a reliable opening-round play.

Veteran Justin Rose, coming off a runner-up finish at the 2024 Masters and the 2018 Open, has the experience and scoring history to back up his pick. With four opening rounds of 68 or better and 21 Open appearances (15 made cuts), he brings both pedigree and course familiarity.

Daniel Berger is also drawing interest. He’s tallied nine top-25s and four opening rounds of 68 or better, including a 63 this season. Though he’s made just two of four Open cuts, his Phoenix Open runner-up proves he can get out of the gates quickly.

Highest Handle %: Big Bets on Big Names

• Scottie Scheffler – 9.8%
• Nick Taylor – 8.2%
• Ludvig Aberg – 6.5%

While Taylor leads in volume, it’s Scottie Scheffler who tops the handle leaderboard. The world’s top-ranked player has been lights-out in 2025: 15-for-15 in cuts, three wins, including the PGA Championship, and 12 top-10 finishes. His eight opening rounds of 68 or better this season reflect elite consistency and explosiveness — exactly what bettors seek in a first-round leader.

Taylor’s support from sharp money further validates his high ticket count. His early scoring average is among the best in the field, and his current form suggests another hot Thursday could be coming.

Ludvig Aberg, with five sub-68 openers this season and a win at the Genesis Invitational, is another rising star worth watching. Though he missed the cut in his Open debut last year, bettors clearly believe he has the tools to start strong on Thursday.

Biggest Liabilities: Sportsbooks Exposed to Hot Starts

• Nick Taylor
• Daniel Berger
• Corey Conners

Nick Taylor once again headlines the list, making him the biggest liability for sportsbooks in this market. With both high ticket volume and strong handle, a fast Thursday from Taylor would deliver a serious hit to the books.

Daniel Berger also represents a sneaky liability. While not among the most elite players in the field, his early-round performance this season — particularly that 63 — makes him dangerous.

Corey Conners is another player the books are watching closely. Conners has made 16 of 17 cuts this year, with 10 top-25s and five top-10s. Though he’s not known for blistering starts, his four opening rounds of 68 or better suggest that he’s more than capable of grabbing an early lead — especially in the right conditions.

Who Has the Edge Thursday?

The First Round Leader market is often the most unpredictable in golf betting — but patterns matter. Players like Nick Taylor and Scottie Scheffler are drawing action for a reason: they’ve consistently started fast all season. Meanwhile, veterans like Justin Rose bring course knowledge that can’t be quantified but often pays off in links play.

With conditions playing a massive role in Open Championship scoring, bettors should keep an eye on tee times and weather reports before locking in bets. But based on the early numbers, expect fireworks early from familiar names — and a few value surprises.