The 2025 Open Championship Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Course Outlook

It will always be the British Open to me, but different name still means the same great competition for golf’s final major of the year, The Open Championship. The PGA’s best, along with the top golfers the DP and LIV Golf have to offer, will tee it up at Royal Portrush, where weather, treacherous rough, and unforgiving slim fairways will challenge the very best linksman.

That said, let’s take a deep look into the course and the top three picks I like to slay Portrush at this weekend’s Open Championship.

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Royal Portrush Golf Club Course Outlook for The Open

The 2025 Open Championship heads back to Northern Ireland, where the revamped Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush stands ready to challenge the best in the world. Designed by Harry Colt nearly a century ago and reimagined by Martin Ebert in recent years, this coastal par-71 masterpiece offers a gritty, unforgiving brand of links golf unlike any other on the Open rota. Now stretched to 7,381 yards, Portrush is both scenic and sinister, with natural elevation changes, narrow corridors, thick gorse, and penal bunkers that demand precise execution.

Players will navigate a routing that frequently shifts direction, minimizing wave advantages and maximizing exposure to unpredictable Atlantic winds. The greens are small and perched—often crowned atop dunes or protected by slopes—limiting run-up options and punishing misfires. With only three par-4s over 470 yards and a host of holes that reward finesse over firepower, driving restraint and pinpoint approach play will be essential.

This isn’t a layout that players can overpower. Strategic decision-making, creative shot shaping, and weather adaptability will separate contenders from pretenders. Whether flirting with the cliffs at “White Rocks” or surviving the gauntlet of “Calamity Corner,” Royal Portrush promises a pure links battle—one that could quickly unravel even the most confident of games.

Xander Schauffele Win Only +2500

After cashing for us last week, as a top 10 finish pick at the Genesis Scottish Open, I’m feeling more and more confident with Xander Schauffele each week. He looks to have put his slow start behind him after a late start to the season, while recovering from an intercostal injury. 

The nine-time PGA Tour tournament winner shot nine under par last week, highlighted by a pair of 66 rounds. It appears Schauffele is getting his links game together just in time for the final major of the PGA calendar. He will need it to slay the medieval beast that is Royal Portrush.

Averaging 310.9 yards off the tee (30th on Tour), Schauffele certainly brings solid power to the table—but it’s his iron play that will truly set him apart this weekend in Northern Ireland. Ranked seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.681) and sitting 45th in approach shots from 200+ yards, the 31-year-old consistently puts himself in scoring position. Schauffele is also firing at a 66.9% clip, hitting greens in regulation, which puts him 62nd on Tour. His precision on approach, particularly in Open-style conditions where mid-to-long irons are crucial, makes him a strong fit for Royal Portrush’s demanding setup.

Let’s not forget Schauffele’s past success in the UK. He’s made all four cuts at the Scottish Open, winning the tournament in 2022. More importantly, the San Diego State alum won last year’s British Open, shooting nine under, and was runner-up in 2018. Schauffele has made the cut in all seven of his Open Championship runs, including at this very course in 2019.

I also love the price we are getting here with Schauffele. Not only is the +2500 chock-full of value, but if you want to double up your wager to go E/W, even a top-five finish can pay out nicely. Xander has found his game, and he will unleash it at Portrush this weekend.

Jon Rahm Top LIV Golf Player +260

Jon Rahm will be one of the best links-style players to tee it up this week, where his excellence and experience on such courses will pay off. 

Few players in the modern game are as comfortable navigating the challenges of links golf as Rahm. Over the past decade, he’s consistently thrived on these rugged coastal layouts, combining power with precision in ways that few can replicate. His ability to flight the ball through swirling winds, control trajectory, and pick apart difficult green complexes has made him a perennial contender when the conditions get tough. Rahm’s elite iron play and sharp course management give him a significant edge on venues like Royal Portrush, where creativity and resilience are often rewarded more than raw power alone.

While Rahm has been slinging it for LIV, he has also performed well at his three PGA events this season. The big Spaniard has made the cut in all three of his Masters, PGA Championship, and US Open appearances in 2025, with his best showing coming at the Open, where he finished T-7.

The Arizona State product has also achieved considerable success in Europe on links courses, particularly in Great Britain. Rahm won the Irish Open twice (2017, 2019), while putting up a third-place finish at Royal St. George’s in the 2021 Open Championship. At this very course, the 30-year-old shot three under to finish 11th back in 2019.

Outside of his former golf association, Rahm has thrived at LIV Golf. The 2023 Masters champion sits second in the season standings, just 12 points behind the lead. He is coming off one of his best showings of the season, his second No. 2 finish at Andalucia, where he shot seven under in his home country. Rahm, the captain of Legion XIII, also has his squad atop the LIV team leaderboard.

With a proven track record on links terrain and the all-around game to handle every challenge this year’s Open will throw at him, Rahm profiles as a legitimate threat to raise the Claret Jug. He always brings his A-Game to The Open, with T-7 or better finishes in three of his past four appearances at this tournament.

I expect Rahm’s outstanding play in Great Britain and on links-style courses to continue and for him to best a group where he leads the odds. Rahm is the clear play over Bryson DeChambeau (+450), Tyrrell Hatton (+600), and Joaquin Niemann (+900).

Rory McIlroy Top European +330

Sitting at +700 to win The Open, I like cutting those odds in half while taking out the Scottie Schefflers, Xander Schauffeles, and Collin Morikawa‘s of the world for Rory McIlroy. In our play, Rory’s biggest competition becomes Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Aberg. No disrespect to those Euros, but getting rid of the No. 1 golfer in the world and last year’s Open champion narrows the herd. Top European also gives us some extra punch rather than top UK+Ireland prop, where Rory is just +200.

What a great story it would be to see Rory at his best in front of his home fans in Northern Ireland. This is much more than some pulp fiction, as McIlroy has the game and motivation to do just that. The  McIlroy has been launching missiles off the tee all season, ranking second in driving distance with an eye-popping 322.2-yard average. He’s made his presence felt early and often, gaining 0.632 strokes off the tee per round—good for fifth on Tour in 2025. Rory’s iron play has also been sharp, sitting 68th at +0.177 in SG: Approach to Green, and he ranks 52nd in approach shots 200+ yards.

McIlroy has done damage after putting the big clubs away as well. The flatstick has been a weapon, with Rory sitting sixth in putting average (1.715), 27th in total putts per round (28.43), and an elite fourth in strokes gained: putting at +0.754. His 10th place one-putt percentage of 43.60% also stands out while on the dance floor.

Rory comes into Portrush off a second-place finish at last week’s Scottish Open, where he shot 13 under, for his second straight T-6 or better placement. It looks like McIlroy has shaken off his mini-May-June slump that saw him finish 47th at the US Open, followed by a shocking missed cut at the Canadian Open.

The 36-year-old has a world of experience at this tournament, teeing it up 15 times at The Open. McIlroy has made the cut in 12 of those to go along with eight top 25 finishes, seven top 10s, a runner-up in 2018, and the champion in 2014. While Rory’s been cut in two of his past five Opens, he also has six T-6 or better finishes in his past 10 British Opens.

I think Rory will not only be the best Euro but also contend for the Claret Jug. Raise a shot of Jameson for McIlroy to get it done for us this weekend.