MLB · 1 year ago

Cardinals vs. Brewers | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

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Cardinals vs. Brewers | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:15 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Andre Pallante (3.80 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.70 ERA)

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I keep coming back to my guy Andre Pallante, the ground-ball king. However, I’m not about to take the Cardinals on the road against Freddy Peralta and a bullpen that got a rest day yesterday. It’s the first game on a Labor Day slate; you know this game is going under.

I’ve turned into a Pallante fan. His ability to keep the ball on the ground is special, rocking the highest ground-ball rate in the league. The floor on a starting pitcher is so high, and especially when his hard hit rate is above average, the contact usually is softer. Even if there are runners on base, especially with the Cardinals’ defense, the double play is always on the table.

Pallante has also been fantastic on the road this season, rocking a 2.86 ERA compared to a 4.66 ERA at home. We even took the under in his last home start, which cashed for us. He’s been on a roll no matter the park against really tough matchups.

He’s faced elite offenses in four straight starts, tallying 24.2 innings and only allowing seven earned runs. This month, even with a five-run outing against the Mets (that game went under), he has a 3.30 ERA.

The Brewers’ offense has been good, not great, against right-handed pitching lately. They rank 14th in wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks at 108, 8% better than the league average. In the previous 30 days, they have a 119 wRC+. It’s a good offense, but they don’t have an easy matchup against high-leverage bullpen arms and Pallante.

I project Pallante for six innings while allowing two runs, which is his average outing this month. Behind Pallante, we have Ryan Helsley (2.34 ERA), Andrew Kittredge (3.18 ERA), Ryan Fernandez (3.32 ERA), and Matthew Liberatore, who has a 2.50 ERA in August in the bullpen. I see the Brewers putting up four runs in this game at most.

The Cardinals get a date with Peralta, who has been disappointing this year because he’s so talented. However, he’s been on a heater over his last three starts, and I want in on the action. In his previous 17 innings, he’s allowed nine hits and one earned run, and his strikeout stuff was on full display in his last start.

Even with St Louis’ offensive outburst this weekend, over the last two weeks, they have a 116 wRC+. In such a short sample, they still aren’t a top-five offense against righties. I think the series against the Yankees was a bit flukey for how St Louis has hit this year, and now they go up against Peralta and a Brewers bullpen that essentially got an off-day yesterday.

This game ends 4-3 in favor of Milwaukee, but the moneyline is expensive for the Brewers. We could see an upside for one of these teams to struggle on offense, especially the Cardinals, where their OPS in the day drops 40 points.

I would take this total down to 7.5 (-110), as I don’t see more than seven runs being scored in this one.