Houston Astros: 87.5 Wins is Well Within Reach in AL West

The Houston Astros enter the 2025 season with a projected win total of 87.5, but despite a few key injuries and aging veterans, this team still has the core talent to make a deep run. Can they surpass expectations yet again and dominate the AL West? Let’s break it down from a betting and fantasy perspective.

Deep but Banged-Up Rotation Still Has Potential

The Astros’ pitching staff is still one of the more recognizable in the league—but injuries and contract distractions are creeping in.

• Framber Valdez Drama Looms
  
  Framber Valdez, set to be a free agent next year, has voiced frustration over stalled contract talks. That aside, he remains a reliable lefty at the top of the rotation. Expect another sub-3.50 ERA season.

• Hunter Brown: Fantasy Breakout Watch
  
  Hunter Brown has all the tools to take the next step and is a popular mid-round fantasy target. His K upside makes him a valuable asset for the Astros and fantasy GMs alike.

• Depth Concerns
  
  Luis Garcia may be done for the year with another elbow issue. J.P. France is decent, but inconsistent. Lance McCullers Jr. remains a wild card due to constant injuries. Ronel Blanco could step in for spot starts, but there’s not much margin for error.

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Betting Angle: Rotation Is Good, But Fragile

If Valdez and Brown stay healthy, this team can contend—but bettors should monitor injury updates closely. Depth issues make the over 87.5 wins riskier than in past years.

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Offense Still Dangerous Without Kyle Tucker

The Astros’ identity has long been rooted in their relentless offense, and even without Kyle Tucker, there’s still firepower.

• Yordan Alvarez Must Lead the Charge
  
  With Kyle Tucker out, Yordan Alvarez becomes the undisputed focal point. If he plays 140+ games, Houston can still score with the best of them.

• Yainer Diaz & Isaac Paredes = Underrated Upside
  
  Yainer Diaz is locked in as the everyday catcher and has shown pop at the plate—he’s rising fast in fantasy drafts. Isaac Paredes, expected to take over at third, brings solid power and could break out in his first full season in Houston.

• Altuve in Left Field?
  
  One of the more bizarre experiments of the spring, Jose Altuve is trying out left field. So far, the results haven’t been promising, but the team may be desperate to get Mauricio Dubón into everyday second base duties.

• Depth and Outfield Regression
  
  With Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers in the outfield, the Astros are less explosive than in past years. Still good—but not elite.

Ranking the AL Central Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season

Betting Angle: Offense Can Carry the Load

Even without Tucker, Houston’s lineup remains deep. If Alvarez stays healthy and Diaz continues to develop, they should score enough to keep pace in most games.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: Exciting AL Central Opener

Astros Win Total Prediction: Slight Lean Over 87.5

Pick: Slight Lean – Over 87.5 Wins

• Rotation can still be strong—but one or two more injuries could be costly.

• Offense isn’t as dominant without Tucker, but still solid enough to compete.

• Houston’s experience, bullpen, and discipline give them the edge in close games.

With the AL West up for grabs, Houston remains a legit playoff team, but the over isn’t quite the lock it’s been in past years. If you’re betting futures, keep an eye on Framber’s health and Alvarez’s durability—those two will swing the total.

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