Series Preview: Dodgers open crucial three-game set against Padres

SAN DIEGO — Over three games in Anaheim, the Dodgers looked like the version of themselves the rest of the National League fears: explosive offensively, deeper than expected on the mound and suddenly surging again behind a core beginning to heat up all at once. 

The Dodgers arrive in San Diego riding a five-game winning streak, but this series feels less about momentum and more about proving whether their recent offensive surge is sustainable against one of the few teams built to match them punch for punch.

Dodgers (29-18, 1st in NL West)

The biggest development for Los Angeles over the weekend may have been Shohei Ohtani finally looking fully locked back in at the plate. After spending much of early May chasing pitches outside the zone and struggling to drive the ball consistently, Ohtani erupted during the Freeway Series, going 6-for-13 with 15 total bases, nine RBIs and his hardest contact in weeks. His opposite-field approach looked noticeably sharper against the Angels, particularly Sunday when he repeatedly stayed back on offspeed pitches and drove the ball through the middle of the field.

That matters entering Petco Park because San Diego’s pitching staff has consistently neutralized the Dodgers when Ohtani expands the zone. Michael King, specifically, has attacked him carefully with elevated fastballs and sliders below the zone. If Ohtani is suddenly controlling at-bats again, it changes the entire complexion of this lineup.

Andy Pages continues evolving from breakout contributor into one of the Dodgers’ most dangerous hitters. His three-run homer Friday gave him 10 home runs and 38 RBIs, tying him for the MLB lead entering the series. More importantly, Pages has become one of the few Dodgers hitters consistently punishing velocity, something that becomes critical against San Diego’s power-heavy pitching staff.

Max Muncy also quietly enters the series playing some of his best baseball in over a year. His 12 home runs lead the Dodgers, but the bigger storyline is how much more balanced his at-bats have become. Muncy’s strikeout rate remains high, but he’s handling left-handed pitching better than he did last season and driving the ball to left-center again instead of selling out entirely for pull power.

Now the Dodgers hand the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 1 facing a Padres lineup that has historically handled him far better than most teams. Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado have both seen Yamamoto unusually well dating back to last season, and Petco Park remains one of the tougher environments in baseball for opposing starters to navigate once San Diego’s offense starts applying pressure.

There’s also growing intrigue surrounding Ohtani’s continued pitching progression. His scheduled Wednesday start against Randy Vásquez will mark another major benchmark as the Dodgers continue carefully stretching him back into a full two-way role. Ohtani’s 0.82 ERA jumps off the page, but the more interesting development has been his increasing pitch efficiency. He’s needed far fewer stressful innings lately, allowing the Dodgers to gradually push him deeper into games.

This series could also expose one lingering concern for Los Angeles: bullpen depth.

The Dodgers bullpen was excellent against the Angels, allowing just three runs all weekend, but the workload remains significant because of the rotation injuries. Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen have already been leaned on heavily, and Dave Roberts may need length from his starters to avoid overextending key relievers before summer even arrives.

Padres (28-18, 2nd in NL West)

The Padres enter this series playing arguably their best baseball of the season, but unlike the Dodgers, they’re doing it without relying on star power alone.

San Diego just swept Seattle while outscoring the Mariners 22-7 over the weekend, and the biggest reason has been the emergence of unexpected offensive contributors around Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr.

Gavin Sheets has become one of the Padres’ most productive hitters, launching three home runs in two games against Seattle while now leading the team with nine homers. Sheets’ ability to punish right-handed pitching has added badly needed balance to a lineup that at times became too dependent on Machado carrying the offense.

The Padres are also suddenly getting production from depth pieces like Miguel Andújar, Rodolfo Durán and Ty France, helping offset injuries that continue thinning their pitching staff.

But the real story entering this series is San Diego’s rotation quietly outperforming expectations despite multiple injuries. Michael King remains one of the National League’s toughest matchups because of his ability to neutralize both lefties and righties with his changeup-slider mix, while Randy Vásquez has emerged as one of baseball’s more surprising breakout arms with a 2.76 ERA.

Even Lucas Giolito’s solid debut Sunday gave the Padres another needed innings source after losing Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Matt Waldron.

The Padres also continue thriving defensively. Xander Bogaerts looked rejuvenated in Seattle, while San Diego’s outfield defense remains one of the fastest and most athletic groups in the league. Against a Dodgers team suddenly putting far more balls in play during this winning streak, that could become a major factor over four games.

Most importantly, though, the Padres enter this series only a half-game behind Los Angeles despite spending much of April battling inconsistency offensively. A strong series at Petco could quickly flip both the division standings and early-season pressure back onto the Dodgers.

Pitching Probables

Monday, May 18: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3-3, 3.60 ERA) vs. Michael King (3-2, 2.63 ERA)

Tuesday, May 19: Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 4.54 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (0-2, 10.64 ERA)

Wednesday, May 20: Shohei Ohtani (3-2, 0.82 ERA) vs. Randy Vásquez (5-1, 2.76 ERA)

Injury Report

Dodgers

Day-to-day: none

10-day IL: none

15-day IL: RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Tyler Glasnow, RHP Ben Casparius, LHP Blake Snell, LHP Jack Dreyer

60-day IL: RHP Edwin Díaz, INF/OF Tommy Edman, INF/OF Kiké Hernández, RHP Landon Knack, RHP Gavin Stone, RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Evan Phillips, RHP Brusdar Graterol

Padres

Day-to-day: 2B Jake Cronenworth (7-day)

10-day IL: C Luis Campusano

15-day IL: RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Germán Márquez

60-day IL: RHP Bryan Hoeing, RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Jhony Brito