MLB · 9 months ago

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Blue Jays, Mets, Twins Picks and Best Bets Today

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

We cashed our three-game MLB parlay last night with the Jays, Mets, and Brewers, and we’re not cooling off anytime soon. Tonight, we’re going back to the well on two teams, while keeping the same aggressive approach — targeting plus-money value and fading teams in tough matchups.

Minnesota sends red-hot Joe Ryan to the mound against a Yankees lineup struggling to make consistent contact, while Toronto lines up Kevin Gausman against a Cubs rookie with shaky road splits. To round things out, the Mets busted out of their slump in a big way last night and should keep swinging against a subpar pitcher tonight.

All three spots offer strong edges backed by the metrics, giving us a tight, high-confidence three-leg play that can keep our winning streak rolling.

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Where to Watch Twins vs Yankees

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: The Bronx, New York
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video, MNNT
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+130) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: MIN +128 | NYY -152

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 1: Twins Moneyline +128

Getting plus money against a struggling New York Yankees squad when the Minnesota Twins have their ace on their mound seems like a no-brainer to me.

Diamond Joe Ryan is dealing like one of the hottest arms in baseball, holding opponents to three runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. He’s fresh off a five-inning win over the Kansas City Royals, where he gave up just one run on four hits, punching out five and never letting the Royals get comfortable.

It’s all part of a career-best campaign for the Twins righty. Ryan enters this start with a 2.79 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a .203 opponents’ batting average — all personal highs — pairing elite command with swing-and-miss stuff. Right now, he’s giving Minnesota exactly the kind of frontline dominance that can tilt a matchup. He’s actually pitched even better on the road in 2025, with a 2.55 ERA, about a half run lower than at home.

Ryan will face a Yankees offense that’s really struggled stringing hits together lately. New York has hit just .202 in its past 10 games, part of a larger problem, where they have the third-lowest batting average over the past month (.224). They have had to be bailed out by the home run, as New York has hit the third most over that span (39).

On the mound, Yankees’ starter Cam Schlittler is going to see the “schlit" hit the fan tonight. Schlittler has pitched above his weight in his 24 innings of Major League career to a 4.38 ERA. The rookie hurler has an expected ERA, nearly a run higher at 5.22. Other numbers also point to regression, namely a WHIP of 1.66 and an opponent’s batting average of almost .300.

I believe in Joe Ryan and like the Twins to bounce back from last night’s 9-1 drubbing at Yankee Stadium.

MIN vs NYY Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Cubs vs Blue Jays

Ballpark: Rogers Centre
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Where to Watch: SNET, MARQ
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Spread: TOR -1.5 (+152) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: CHC +116 | TOR -134

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 2: Blue Jays Moneyline -134

The Toronto Blue Jays roll into this matchup with the Chicago Cubs fresh off taking the series opener 5-1 last night, on the strength of Jose Berrios tossing 5.1 innings of shutout baseball. Tonight, the Cubs have an even tougher pitcher to deal with.

Kevin Gausman has been stellar all season, sporting a 3.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The former Baltimore Oriole has 11 quality starts and has gone at least six innings in four straight starts. Gausman also has great swing and miss stuff with 135 strikeouts in 135.2 innings and a 31.2% chase rate that puts him in the top 18% of big league pitchers.

Toronto is one of the most complete lineups in baseball. They lead the Majors in batting average at .270 — a full 11 points clear of the next-best club — and sit first in on-base percentage at .340. The power numbers are just as dangerous, ranking third in OPS (.769) and seventh in total runs (588).

The advanced metrics support every aspect of that production. The Jays own MLB’s top expected batting average (.274), rank fifth in xwOBA (.343), and expected slugging at .445. That’s the profile of an offense that doesn’t rely on short bursts or soft matchups — they’re delivering quality swings night after night, and the data says it’s no fluke. They should be able to get to the Cubs’ rookie starter.

Cade Horton has been solid in his young career, with a 6-3 record and 3.18 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest that correction could be imminent. The 23-year-old has an expected ERA of 4.28, over a run higher than his actual number. Horton also has an expected opponents’ batting average of .257, 11 points higher than his actual opponents’ batting average of .246. The former Oklahoma Sooner has also been a different player away from the pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field. His road ERA balloons to 5.19, compared to just 1.69 at home.

Toronto is definitely a hitter’s park, and the Jays will show Horton just how much on Wednesday night.

CHC vs TOR Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Where to Watch Braves vs Mets

Ballpark: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
Where to Watch: Fox Sports 1, SNY, FDSSO
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Spread: NYM -1.5 (-106) | Total: 8.5
Moneyline: ATL +172 NYM -205

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.

Leg 3: Mets Runline -106

The New York Mets snapped their seven-game skid last night by emphatically pounding the Atlanta Braves, taking the opener 13-5 and chasing Braves ace Spencer Strider after eight runs in just four innings. Now they get a far more favorable draw against Carlos Carrasco (6.18 ERA, 1.58 WHP), a matchup that plays right into their offensive strengths.

With Pete Alonso (two HRs last night), Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor at the top, this lineup isn’t just dangerous — it’s relentless. They punish mistakes from the first pitch to the last, and the depth behind their stars keeps the pressure constant. It’s a high-contact, high-damage group built to grind down starters and feast on bullpens.

The advanced metrics match the eye test. New York ranks fourth in MLB in expected slugging (.457) and second in expected wOBA (.345), while sitting top-five in xwOBA on contact (.400), barrel rate (10.4%), hard-hit rate (44.9%), and average exit velocity (90.4 MPH). When they square one up, the ball leaves in a hurry.

It’s production that holds against any tier of pitching. The Mets are just outside the top 10 in OPS in baseball at .730 and have been equally dangerous against frontline arms and back-end starters, making them one of the toughest outs in the game right now.

Atlanta’s offense has been trending in the opposite direction, still missing its two biggest bats in Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley. Without that star power, the production has dipped hard. Over the past month, the Braves are hitting just .238 (23rd in MLB) with a .737 OPS — numbers that have kept them planted in the middle of the pack.

It’s not just a recent slump, either. This has been a season-long issue, with Atlanta’s expected batting average sitting at .250 — barely above the league’s bottom third and a far cry from the elite standard this lineup has set in recent years. Without their usual firepower, the Braves have relied on patchwork production and timely hits, but the gap between their current output and their peak form remains glaring.

I like the Mets’ bats to keep booming tonight and beat up Carrasco to get a multiple-run win over the Braves.

ATL vs NYM Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates