MLB · 1 year ago

MLB Home Run Derby Betting Guide: Best Bets and Predictions

Ben DiGiacomo

Host · Writer

MLB Home Run Derby Betting Guide: Best Bets and Predictions

The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby has arrived, and there is plenty of excitement this season as the league introduces a new format.

The MLB is doing away with the old style of a seeded bracket. Instead, each player will compete individually, and the top four home run hitters among the eight in the first round will advance to the semifinals. In the semifinals, though, seeding comes into play, as the remaining four participants will be seeded according to their first-round total.

Additionally, while a three-minute timer will roll in the first and second rounds, the maximum pitches will be capped at 40. In the final, it shrinks to two minutes or 27 pitches.

The bonus time format has also been changed. Batters will now get three outs, with the ability to earn a fourth out if they hit a home run of at least 425 feet.

It will be a great night of baseball festivities in Arlington, Texas, so stick with SportsGrid all day to give you the best insight on the derby. Let’s dive into the players and give you our best bets and predictions.

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The Field

Pete Alonso, New York Mets (+300)

Pete Alonso is competing in his fifth consecutive home run derby and already holds the 2019 and 2021 crowns. Based on his experience, he’s the favorite to win this event, but he was an early exit in the 2023 derby. It will be interesting to see whether or not he’s due for continued regression or can turn the page and dominate. Still, Alonso loves this event more than anyone and isn’t shy about it. He’ll want to dominate more than anyone.

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (+380)

Marcell Ozuna owns the second-best odds to win this event, but I’m not seeing too much buzz on him to win the title. He has launched 26 home runs during the season, which is good for the fourth-highest mark in baseball, but he’s 33 years old. People have always trusted the endurance of young sluggers in the derby, so it will be interesting to see how Ozuna ultimately fares.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+430)

Gunnar Henderson has become one of baseball’s best young stars and an intriguing pick to win this year’s derby. He has 27 home runs on the season, relying on hard contact to get the ball out of the ballpark. Globe Life Field does favor the left-handed bat, but could that be enough of a boost to propel him to the title?

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+470)

Bobby Witt Jr. is the total package as a derby participant. He fits the young mold, baseballs fly off his bat with the needed launch angle, and he has the endurance to thrive in this setting. During the regular season, he’s continually made his case. When he hits home runs, they are constantly no doubters.

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers (+500)

Adolis Garcia will have the home-field advantage tonight in Globe Life Field, but how much is that worth? He has not been as elite of a hitter as last season despite having 17 home runs, but when participating in the derby last season, he was a first-round exit. Could he bounce back in his home park? I’m among the belief that you’re either built for the derby or you’re not. Last year, he showed us he was not.

Teoscar Hernadez, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1100)

Teoscar Hernandez is an exciting name in this derby field. He has put up a quiet 19 home runs this season with the Dodgers. Hernandez has the right attitude going into the derby, being open about wanting to go in and have fun. But how much can an attitude be worth? It could be worth a semifinal berth, but not the derby crown.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (+1200)

It’s unknown which side of the plate Jose Ramirez will be swinging from, but given the metrics of Globe Life Field, the park favors left-handed batters. On the season, Ramirez sports just a .232 batting average from the left side compared to a .364 batting average as a right-handed hitter, but collectively, we know Ramirez is as pure of a hitter as you can find. Ramirez doesn’t have the raw power needed to flourish in the derby event, though, as evidenced by his first-round exit in 2022.

Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (+1600)

Alec Bohm is the long shot of this event with his 11 home runs during the season, and he has openly stated that he knows his chances. However, a long shot shocked us every year in this event, and by all accounts, Bohm’s power does shine through in batting practice settings, given his 6’5" frame. He could find himself in the semifinals if he gets into a groove.

Best Bets & Predictions

Combined Total Home Runs Hit: OVER 269.5 (-113)

Would we bet on the derby and not root for home runs? It remains to be seen how the new format will impact the total number of home runs, but I believe it will help. In the first two rounds, instead of rushing to get as many swings off as possible, the batters will take their time a bit more, conserve some extra energy, and be able to pump out home run caliber swings consistently. Only someone who hates fun will think about betting the under here.

To Make Semifinals: Alec Bohm (+320)

Alec Bohm is the longshot of this year, and I understand why he lacks pure power and only has 11 home runs during the year. However, at +320, you won’t find a better value than this on him to survive the field, shrinking from eight to four. In media sessions, Bohm understands he’s the long shot in this event, but he is going in with a have-fun mentality. Sometimes, a loose attitude is what he does well in these kinds of events, and at 6’5", he has sneaky power. At +320, you might as well take a shot on a pure hitter.

Player to Hit Longest Home Run: Bobby Witt Jr. (+260)

While Bobby Witt Jr. is the favorite to hit the longest home run, I have no reason to fade him. I watched the game this season where he launched a 468-foot home run in Kansas City, and he’s routinely put balls comfortably out of ballparks all season. While others in this competition can rival his raw power, no one can rival his combination of power and endurance. He’ll be fresh throughout the entire derby, so we’ll be excited about how far his longest home run ends up.

To Make Semifinal Parlay: Gunnar Henderson +Bobby Witt Jr. (+170)

For the next decade, we’ll be looking at Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. as the AL’s two best shortstops jockeying for bragging rights, and both young stars are live to win this event. I always approach the derby favoring the young sluggers, and I struggle to see either guy having an early exit tonight. At +170, we’ll parlay both guys to advance to the semifinals, with hopes that both guys can potentially square off in the final round.

Home Run Derby Champion: Bobby Witt Jr. (+470)

Bobby Witt Jr. is the total package at the plate and is especially built to dominate in this event. He is young, makes consistent hard contact, can hit bombs from all areas of the strike zone, has the raw power needed to send a ball out of the park on any swing, and has the endurance to last in this event. I’m struggling to find a more well-rounded candidate to win this event, so at +470, he’s our guy.

Home Run Derby Exacta: Bobby Witt Jr. OVER Gunnar Henderson (+3700)

The seeds remain uncertain, but who wouldn’t want to see two of baseball’s best young talents face off for the derby title? We’re already predicting that Bobby Witt Jr. will win the competition, and we also have a Witt+Henderson semifinal parlay in our back pocket, so why not double down on a +3700 exacta? We already touched on Witt Jr.’s viability to win it all, but Gunnar Henderson is right there with him, except I’m slightly concerned about his reliance on line-drive home runs, giving Witt Jr. a slight edge for us. Plus, in terms of entertainment, this would be the best battle.

First-Time Participant to Win Home Run Derby? YES (-168)

This may be my favorite bet of the entire night, and while it’s priced at -168 on FanDuel, I still see immense value in it. This year, we have five first-time participants: Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Marcell Ozuna, and Alec Bohm. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso, Adolis Garcia, and Jose Ramirez are repeat participants. Essentially, I view this bet as a Pete Alonso fade because Garcia’s lack of stamina and Ramirez’s lack of pure power are reasons to count out both guys relatively safely. Looking strictly at Alonso, sure, he’s a viable threat to win the derby; he is the favorite, after all! However, with losses in 2022 and 2023, could he be regressing? I get banking on his experience in this event, but we rarely see older players win the derby. At -168, despite the juice, the holistic view of this bet is too tempting for me to pass on.