MLB · 1 year ago

Rockies vs. Braves Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

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Rockies vs. Braves Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

The soul search I did on Tuesday worked, as the worst team ever cashed for us. It was a gross pick, taking the White Sox team total over, but we must get gross to win in MLB right now. Today, we are returning to betting on the worst teams in baseball.

2024 Record: 111-115 (-8.33 U)

Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Austin Gomber (4.69 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (2.00 ERA)

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We are following a formula similar to the White Sox team total from yesterday. We have a terrible Rockies team left for dead against one of the best pitchers in the league who has excelled at home. It can’t get any grosser than to back Rockies bats. I know it, and the books know it, so we are getting an excellent discount on backing the Rockies.

The Rockies stink out loud when they travel on the road, especially after a series in Coors Field. They got shut out by Chris Sale, Joe Jimenez, and Raisel Iglesias in their first game of the homestand, which is understandable. Adjusting to altitude and facing the CY Young Award winner and then the Braves’ two best relievers, what a nightmare.

Yesterday, they did perfectly fine against Charlie Morton, but the Braves threw their four quality arms after him, including Iglesias and Jimenez again.

Today, they face Reynaldo Lopez and likely the lesser part of Atlanta’s bullpen. Lopez has been a monster this season, rocking an insane 2.00 ERA, and he levels up at home for a 1.72 ERA. It sounds horrible to back the Rockies.

It’s not as horrible when we remember that Lopez is objectively due for regression. Lopez has a SIERA at 3.91 and an xERA at 4.15. Jack Flaherty has the highest LOB% (left on-base percentage) among pitchers that qualify at 82.1%. Last year, Blake Snell had an 86.7 LOB%, but that made some sense; he was striking out everybody. It’s tough to keep runs off the board at that high rate when you have runners on. Albert Suarez had a similar issue, and it bit him yesterday.

Lopez is at 86.5%. The same as Snell, yet his strikeout rate is 8% lower than Snell’s, and Lopez’s walk rate is just 2% lower than Snell’s. Lopez throws a fastball and slider 84% of the time, and while his slider is fantastic, his fastball is definitely hittable. At some point, the runners he’s allowing on base will score; it’s just a matter of when.

There are also some signs left by the books that tell me at least two earned runs are in Lopez’s future today. First, his fantasy score on DFS apps is 39.5, which he’s cleared in three straight starts. Now he gets the Rockies at home… you’d think he quickly goes over this number again, right? He hasn’t allowed more than one run in four straight starts, yet he’s -150 to go over 1.5 earned runs with a 17.5 pitching outs line. That doesn’t scream domination to me.

Beyond him is a Braves bullpen that has thrown their two best arms on back-to-back days and threw their third and fourth-best arms yesterday. The Rockies likely won’t see the elite side of the Braves bullpen today.

Three runs is all we need. Lopez could pitch well, allowing two runs in six innings, then we get a cheap run against the bullpen. Or, Lopez finally gives up the big hit with runners on base, and we hit this one early like we did with Chicago. Or, Lopez goes six innings one run again, and we have to hope they put in a lesser bullpen arm, as they’ll likely have a solid lead, and we get it that way. It’s three runs with nine innings of guaranteed hitting; that’s pretty easy.

The Rockies team total was juiced to -155 yesterday and didn’t go over, and now they dropped the price 20 cents when they should have made it even more expensive. The best value of the day is backing the Rockies to score three runs. I would bet this at one unit to -150. You can also pivot to the full game over if it’s too expensive.