Why is No One Talking About Braves’ Marcell Ozuna as NL MVP?
Grant White
Host · Writer
Six weeks into the MLB season, we have a robust enough sample size to draw more meaningful conclusions.
Everyone’s taken notice of the Los Angeles Dodgers and their trio of MVP candidates. Mookie Betts has cemented himself as the odds-on favorite to claim the first NL MVP of his career. Likewise, Shohei Ohtani is making the case to become the first designated hitter to be awarded the distinction. Freddie Freeman may have fallen out of contention slightly, but he remains a mid-range candidate who is not worth passing up.
That’s without considering the likes of Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., or even Ronald Acuna Jr..
But there’s another Atlanta Braves slugger that is worthy of consideration.
Marcell Ozuna’s Elite Start
Marcell Ozuna has emerged as one of the top offensive threats across the major leagues. Among all qualified hitters, the Braves slugger sits just behind Ohtani in OPS, putting together a robust 1.032 rating. Moreover, Ozuna’s 12 home runs and 38 RBI are tops in the MLB.
Successes Validated
Prior season successes validate this torrid pace. In 2020, Ozuna led the NL in home runs and RBI in the COVID-abbreviated campaign. Likewise, he’s already hit triple-digits in RBI twice throughout his career, reaching a high mark of 124 in 2017.
We’re not going to point to historical data to validate his rejuvenated success in 2024, but Ozuna does have the analytics profile supporting sustained performance.
Analytics Profile
Inarguably, Ozuna has the best underlying metrics of any MLB hitter. The two-time Silver Slugger sits in the 100th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, batting average, and slugging percentage. That’s complemented by his 96th percentile rating in barrel rate and sweet spot contact and 97th percentile ranking in hard-hit rate.
Altogether, Ozuna’s run value production is better than any other hitter in the game.
Overshadowed by Ronald Acuna Jr., Et. Al
Not that Ozuna gets to take credit for Ronald Acuna Jr.’s successes, but he has been a contributing factor in his teammates’ stats. Typically, Ozuna bats behind Acuna Jr. in the order, facilitating some of his runs scored. Still, bettors have been lining up to bet on Acuna Jr. without even considering Ozuna’s candidacy as MVP.
So far this season, Acuna Jr. has accounted for 8.2% of the tickets and 13.4% of the betting handle. On the other hand, Ozuna represents just 0.3% and 0.5% of those respective values. Not only does that put him behind Acuna Jr., but he also trails Matt Olson in both categories and Michael Harris II in ticket count.
Final Thoughts: Value to be Had
While everyone talks about Ohtani as a potential MVP-winning DH, you can get ahead of the curve and highlight Ozuna. The Atlanta Braves’ designated hitter has been more productive than his Dodgers counterpart and, given his underlying metrics, is poised to continue his assault on the MLB leaderboards.
After opening at +20000 and dropping to +2600, sportsbooks are taking notice of Ozuna’s MVP-worthy profile. Although many bettors have yet to take advantage, there’s still an edge in backing the two-time All-Star in the MVP futures market.
It’s easy to get lost in the hype of the frontrunners, but Ozuna has already closed that gap. As more bettors start to notice, his NL MVP price will inevitably tumble. If you haven’t already, there’s still time to buy into Ozuna.
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